Betting the NFL: Defensive Rookie of the Year

With the NFL season set to kick off next week, the boys from Bet the EDGE continued to assess the Futures Markets. Defensive Rookie of the Year was the focal point for today’s episode.

Last year, Sauce Gardner earned the award. He grabbed attention almost from the day he was drafted. A shut down corner from Day 1 playing in the New York market with the name Sauce, Gardner’s candidacy for the award quickly gained momentum. Despite a late push from Tariq Woolen of the Seattle Seahawks, Sauce controlled the narrative practically start to finish.

This season, Will Anderson (+430) of the Houston Texans is the current favorite followed by Jalen Carter (+550) of the Eagles, Tyree Wilson (+1100) of the Raiders, and Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon (+1100).

In reviewing the field for this season, Croucher (@croucherJD) began by laying the foundation for the award.

“The main thing I would add in terms of pricing this market is that I think that now just advanced stats are much more prevalent now that we are more likely to wind up with a deserving winner than in years past.”

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Dinsick (@whale_capper) added a thought as to what makes a player viable for the honor.

“I went back through the years to try to come up with what’s the rubric for the winner. And it basically is if you’re situational, forget about it. You got to be a Day One starter and you can’t get hurt. Those are kind of the only criteria I could kind of come up with. You got to go back to I think Simeon Rice for the 2001 Ravens to find a situational rookie who won Defensive Rookie of the Year. You got to be out there every snap accumulating snaps.”

Jalen Carter has generated plenty of buzz due to his flashes of dominance in Philadelphia. But if the number of snaps weighs heavily for voters, does that eliminate Carter who will rotate in and out of the Eagles’ defensive line? Or will another’s consistency and sheer number of tackles outweigh Carter’s highlight reel?

Dinsick believes there is a candidate a little further down the board who will impress voters over the course of the full season.

“I chewed hard on this one and really tried to come up with what is going to be the narrative that gets somebody home and I kind of came around with it’s kind of a bad year for this award…So after kind of really searching hard for an answer and deciding that there really was no right answer, I ended up taking Jack Campbell of the Detroit Lions just because he has sort of the profile of the Luke Kuechly Defensive Rookie of the Year winner...he’s on a bad defense, but he’s going to accumulate numbers. He is going to be out there for every snap...he’s going to show up on the stat sheet from a tackling standpoint, I think pretty obviously. And I could see him kind of winning by default.”

Dinsick went on to remind viewers that Campbell and the Lions open the season against Kelce and the Chiefs and discussed the real possibility Kelce has a big night in the middle of the field. Such a game by the future HOF tight end would more than likely make Campbell’s odds grow without damaging his overall candidacy. Translation? Campbell’s number becomes juicier for bettors.

For the full episode of Bet the EDGE, click here.

Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.