Betting the NFL: The AFC South

DeAndre Hopkins’ arrival in Nashville raised a few eyebrows as AFC South bettors weigh the odds for teams in a division with possibly two contenders but intrigue attached to all four teams. Yes, intrigue is code for question marks.

Is Jacksonville the team that won their last five regular season games and unloaded on the Chargers in the second half of their playoff victory?

Considering the signing of DeAndre Hopkins, why did Tennessee trade A.J. Brown?

Can Anthony Richardson mature into an NFL quarterback after limited snaps at the collegiate level?

How long before C.J. Stroud takes over under center for the Texans?

The boys of Bet the EDGE dove into the division. Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) broke down the division and looked at the odds for each team.

Which teams will turn tickets into cash and which teams’ performances will turn tickets into coasters?

Jacksonville Jaguars

Division Odds: -155

AFC Odds: +1500

Super Bowl Odds: +2500

Cash: An offense that scored the 10 most point in the NFL last season adds a true #1 threat on the outside in Calvin Ridley (+7500 CPOY) and Travis Etienne (+6000 OPOY) is a full year removed from the Lisfranc injury. Trevor Lawrence appears on the verge of stardom.

Dinsick: “I think the Jaguars are significantly better than the Titans as a team overall in terms of their roster. Doug Pederson (+2000 COY) is an outstanding coach. This is Year 2 now for Trevor Lawrence (+1600 MVP) in this system. I really just don’t see any other team (in the entire NFL) that has anywhere close to the same ceiling within their division.”

Coaster: The Jaguars have the 10 easiest schedule in the NFL, but the most difficult in the AFC South. Jacksonville is a team lacking depth especially as the season opens along the offensive line with Cam Robinson suspended.

Croucher: “The only thing that gives me a slight pause is the fact that they have a first-place schedule, and they have these extra games against Kansas City, Buffalo, and San Francisco.”

Tennessee Titans

Division Odds: +310

AFC Odds: +4500

Super Bowl Odds: +6000

Cash: A revamped offensive line should mean more time for Ryan Tannehill (+10000 MVP). DeAndre Hopkins (+7000 OPOY) averaged seven catches per game last season on slightly over ten targets per game. The man catches the ball when it is thrown his direction. The trickle-down effect is his presence alone will free up space downfield for Treylon Burks (+20000 OPOY). King Henry (+3000 OPOY) is still in the backfield and the Titans have the 8 easiest schedule in the league.

Dinsick: “They have addressed one of the key holes which was the wide receiver position bringing in DeAndre Hopkins. That does help elevate that group overall. And yes, if Derrick Henry comes back with a purpose this year and is the monster that we remember from years past then, all of a sudden, this Titans’ team could be quite scary.”

Coaster: Ryan Tannehill is now two seasons removed from his last good regular season. Will all the new pieces on the offensive line work in unison? And who is covering opposing teams’ wide receivers?

Croucher: “The weaknesses are in the worst parts that you’d want them to be. The defense is solid overall, except for the cornerbacks, which is an important part of the defense, and the strengths of the defense are on the interior defensive line or safety, which you’d rather be pass rush and corner. The team is built around, obviously it’s running game, but the offensive line is no good. So, it just doesn’t necessarily add up at the same time.”

Indianapolis Colts

Division Odds: +550

AFC Odds: +6500

Super Bowl Odds: +10000

Cash: Shane Steichen (+2500 COY) has proven he can develop quarterbacks in today’s NFL. That is crucial for this team’s development. In the meantime, they still have Jonathan Taylor.

Croucher: “If Richardson is the starter (Week 1) over Minshew, then I’ll be rushing to back Anthony Richardson at +700 for Offensive Rookie of the Year.”

Coaster: This team has few pieces to complement a quarterback who enters the league with truly a minimal number of games played let alone not just passes completed but actual passes attempted.

Dinsick: “Down the stretch they face a whole slew of teams that could have rookie quarterbacks, second-year quarterbacks, or guys with injury red flags and you could then be looking at second stringers there. So, I think the Colts are going to be a “bet on” week in and week out as we come down the homestretch of this NFL season, but that’s kind of conditional on them looking not great early this season.”

Houston Texans

Division Odds: +1000

AFC Odds: +8500

Super Bowl Odds: +18000

Cash: When we last saw C.J. Stroud (+850 OROY) on the field in a meaningful situation, he was slicing up the vaunted Georgia Bulldogs’ defense for 348 yards and four touchdowns. That capped off his final two seasons at Ohio State in which he threw for more than 8000 yards and 85 touchdowns (with a paltry 12 INTs). Stroud has all the makings of a foundational piece.

Dinsick: “They have a relatively good starting defense in terms of player personnel without many holes and they have a deep defense. So, if they sustain a couple of injuries, the guys that are going to be backfilling the starters are pretty darn good. And for DeMeco Ryan’s (+2000 COY) defensive scheme that uses wave after wave of pass rushers and really likes to rotate players in pretty aggressively, the fact that they have a deep bench is I think, pretty important. And so I think the defense is going to keep this team in games.”

Coaster: Stroud and Dameon Pierce (+3000 League Rushing Champ) are foundational pieces without question, but questions exist practically everywhere else on the offensive side of the field.

Croucher: “I think Will Anderson has a lot of Malcolm Brogdon “Sixth Man of the Year default winner” type of vibe where maybe he doesn’t have the explosive upside, but he might just be the safest bet on the board. I think he is rightfully the favorite.”

In conclusion, the AFC North may not be a division full of today’s stars, but they have a few as well as potentially a handful of tomorrow’s elite NFL talents.

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Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.