Big Sky Notebook: FCS playoff picture remains murky

BOZEMAN — At the start of the season, the top six football teams in the Big Sky Conference appeared to be good bets to make the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs.

At least one of those six teams has basically been eliminated from postseason contention heading into Week 9, and most of the conference’s postseason picture is hazy heading into the final third of the regular season.

Montana and Montana State are each 6-1 overall. All six wins of MSU's wins were over Division I teams, while the Grizzlies have defeated five D-I teams. The FCS playoff committee uses seven D-I victories as a prominent benchmark.

It would be shocking if the Bobcats don’t beat at least one of Idaho, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington or UM.

The Griz have winless Northern Colorado at home this Saturday, then host Sacramento State, play at Portland State and host MSU. None of those final three games are gimmes, so seven D-I wins for the Griz is not as much of a lock as it looks to be for the Cats.

Idaho is 5-2 but has a favorable schedule after this Saturday’s home game against MSU. The Vandals just need two wins over unranked UNC, Weber State and Idaho State to get to seven D-I victories.

ISU no longer looks like an easy out. The Bengals are tied with Idaho and UM for second in the Big Sky standings at 3-1 after a 38-24 win at Portland State on Saturday. That came one week after their incredible comeback against Eastern Washington.

ISU’s playoff path, however, is rocky. Three of the Bengals’ final four regular season games are against ranked teams, and with a 3-4 overall record, they’d probably have to win out to make the postseason.

Portland State’s loss to ISU all but eliminated it from postseason contention. The Vikings are 3-4 with a win over NAIA North American, so the most D-I wins they could finish with is six.

Northern Arizona’s winless nonconference schedule left little margin for error heading into Big Sky play. The Lumberjacks started strong with a win over UM, a close loss at Sacramento State and a win at Weber State, but they fell to PSU two Saturdays ago, leaving them with two D-I wins. They have four regular season games left.

At 0-7, UNC’s playoff chances were squashed several games ago. Same with Cal Poly and Weber State, which each have two D-I wins with three games remaining.

Cal Poly’s place is much less surprising than Weber’s. The Wildcats have been a perennial playoff team and were one of six Big Sky teams ranked to begin the season.

The team Weber just lost to, Eastern Washington, has three D-I wins with four games to play. Three upcoming opponents — PSU, Cal Poly and NAU — are beatable, but winning at MSU in Bozeman on Nov. 11 will be a tall task. Squandering multiple four-score leads at ISU (one week after building multiple seven-point leads over Idaho) might ultimately cost EWU a playoff berth.

Sac State has five D-I wins and is good enough to win its final four games. The Hornets, however, only have one easy game left (Cal Poly at home Nov. 11). They’ll host ISU and play at UM and UC Davis.

Davis’ playoff odds are the most unclear of any Big Sky team. The Aggies have defeated four D-I teams but narrowly beat Weber and Southern Utah, who are a combined 5-10. Their two Big Sky losses were by one-score margins to the Griz and EWU. Davis needs to beat at least three of NAU, PSU, ISU and Sac State to be postseason eligible (barring surprises from other FCS bubble teams or the playoff committee).

• Montana State is basically a playoff lock.

• Idaho, Montana and Sacramento State should make the postseason barring at least one upset.

• UC Davis controls its playoff probability but can’t afford to lose more than one of its final four games.

• Eastern Washington and Idaho State also control their probability but can’t afford to lose any of their final four games.

• Northern Arizona and Portland State would need to win out and get lots of help to make the postseason.

• Cal Poly, Northern Colorado and Weber State are eliminated from playoff contention.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story included an incorrect number of Division I wins for Montana. The story has been updated to reflect that UM has five D-I wins entering Week 9.

Week 8 results, schedule, standings

Here are all of the Big Sky Week 8 scores:

• Cal Poly 24, Northern Colorado 17

• Eastern Washington 31, Weber State 23

• Idaho State 38, Portland State 24

• Montana State 42, Sacramento State 30

This week’s Big Sky schedule:

• Northern Colorado at Montana, 1 p.m. MT

• UC Davis at Northern Arizona, 1 p.m.

• Montana State at Idaho, 2 p.m.

• Eastern Washington at Portland State, 2 p.m.

• Idaho State at Sacramento State, 7 p.m.

Big Sky standings (overall, conference):

1. Montana State (6-1, 4-0)

T2. Idaho State (3-4, 3-1)

T5. Sacramento State (5-2, 2-2)

T5. Eastern Washington (3-4, 2-2)

T5. Portland State (3-4, 2-2)

T5. Northern Arizona (2-5, 2-2)

T10. Weber State (3-5, 1-4)

12. Northern Colorado (0-7, 0-4)

Top 25

Montana rose two spots to No. 7 in this week’s Stats Perform FCS Top 25. Montana State remained No. 2, Idaho moved up one spot to No. 9 and UC Davis dropped two spots to No. 25. Eastern Washington and Weber State received votes.

Players of the week

Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott received the offensive honor after rushing for 105 yards and two touchdowns and completing 9 of 14 passes for 99 yards in the win at Sacramento State.

Mellott’s teammate, cornerback Jon Johnson, earned MSU’s first defensive player of the week honor this season due to his interception return for a TD, seven tackles and one pass breakup.

Weber State’s Kyle Thompson received the special teams honor for making field goals from 44, 40 and 34 yards out in the loss at Eastern Washington.