Big Ten betting preview: Take Michigan State win total over or under

Mel Tucker is entering his fourth year as the head coach of the Michigan State Spartans, and his time in East Lansing has been a wild one so far. During his first season, Tucker went 2-5, which was worse than most expected, but it was the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. In 2021, Tucker and the Spartans went 11-2 and he parlayed that into a mega contract extension and then seemingly sat back in 2022 as the Spartans went an abysmal, 5-7.

No one expects Michigan State to compete for a Big Ten championship, but things should be much better than the 5-7 it posted last season. Apparently not that much higher as DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM all have the Spartan win total at 5.5.

It’s time to dive into how to attack this number.

The Michigan State offensive line was solid last season, finishing fourth in the Big Ten in sacks allowed with 18. The Spartans return every starter from their season finale with the unit being led by J.D. Duplain who was named second-team All-Big Ten at guard by Pro Football Focus. In addition to that, Nick Samac returns after being named on the third team for PFF at center.

Payton Thorne is gone. He was expected to enter his third season as the starting quarterback for Michigan State and improve upon his fourth-place standing in school history for touchdown passes and sixth-place ranking in school history in passing yards. But one of the most productive passers in school history is gone via the transfer portal to Auburn.

Noah Kim is a redshirt junior and is the man responsible for forcing Thorne to transfer and he looked like the real deal during the spring. Despite Kim only seeing action in four games last season, it appears he will get a shot as the main starter.

It’s hard to have faith in a guy that is an upperclassman but has so little experience, and pushing Thorne out seems like a bit of a desperate move by Tucker and his staff.

The Spartans have two absolute studs at linebacker in Cal Haladay — who is coming back for his fourth year as a starting backer — and Jacoby Windmon who is a versatile chess piece who can really shine rushing the passer as well.

The defensive backfield has been pretty underwhelming under the Mel Tucker regime. It has some intriguing underclassmen that are expected to start at safety including Jaden Mangham and Malik Spencer, who both saw extensive action as freshmen last season.

At corner, the Spartans return Charles Brantley, who led the team in pass deflections, and at the other corner spot, Dillon Tatum is expected to step in. Both have potential, but no one in this defensive backfield strikes fear into an offense.

This prediction is much easier than when we dissected the Michigan Wolverine situation. Everyone is expecting Michigan State to be better, but even if it is, this is a tough schedule. When I evaluate the schedule, I see four confident wins and seven confident losses with a toss-up game against Nebraska.

Based on my projection, that makes the Spartans win total at 4.5 and I know all of this is my personal opinion, but to breakdown that toss-up game against the Cornhuskers even further, Nebraska is going to be an improved team with a new and improved coach and some exciting transfers. So in my books that is a loss. I see another disappointing year for Mel Tucker.

Prediction: Under 5.5 Wins

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