Bill Belichick betting the ranch that Bill O’Brien can fix Patriots offense

It’s Bill O’Brien or bust for Bill Belichick.

After an 8-9 finish last season, the Patriots did a little tinkering with their offensive personnel, but the one game-changing addition has been the coordinator. New England swapped out Jakobi Meyers for JuJu Smith-Schuster, took advantage of a depressed market to add Mike Gesicki, and inked a number of tackles that come with a question marks, but there’s been no major splash.

The biggest cannonball has been O’Brien’s return. Belichick is clearly banking on him to change the offense’s course and this weekend’s NFL Draft reinforced that wholeheartedly.

In Kansas City, all of New England’s picks in the Top 100 came on the defensive side of the ball. When the Patriots finally drafted offensive help, it was a pair of interior linemen in the fourth round. Belichick added a pair of late receivers in the sixth round, and never nabbed a tight end nor a tackle. Beyond that, Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort said they wouldn’t be trading DeAndre Hopkins, and now that the draft has passed, a Jerry Jeudy trade with the Broncos is far less likely.

So what you see is what you get.

As it stands, the only changes from last season on the offensive depth chart are Smith-Schuster at a wide receiver spot, Gesicki somewhere in the alignment, and Riley Reiff at right tackle. Beyond that, it’s the 2022 offense with a new play-caller.

Most of the ingredients are the same. Belichick is banking on a new chef.

It’ll be fascinating to see how many ills O’Brien can cure.

Will he be able to unlock Kendrick Bourne? Can he help DeVante Parker come down with more “80-20 balls?” Will Hunter Henry re-emerge as a serious red zone threat? Can he keep Rhamondre Stevenson fresh? Will he help Tyquan Thornton live up to his draft stock? Can he make a playbook that’s historically befuddled new pass catchers digestible for Smith-Schuster and Gesicki? Will they make an immediate impact?

It’s a lot to ask of a coordinator.

Of course, O’Brien’s best work will have to come with Mac Jones. The quarterback endured a predictable regression in his second season under the stewardship of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, and though the Patriots were reportedly exploring a Hendon Hooker contingency plan for 2024 if things don’t pan out, all signs point to this being Jones’ offense moving forward.

During Belichick’s lone media availability of the weekend, shortly after midnight following the third round, the coach said he “absolutely” still felt good about Jones, with the caveat that he’d have to earn what he gets along with everybody else.

“Mac has been our quarterback for two years,” Belichick said. “As I tell the team every year — each player, each coach — we all have to reestablish and prove ourselves every year. That’s what this league is, so that’s for all of us: ‘23 is ‘23. We’ll see how ‘23 goes.”

Like Jones, Belichick has plenty to prove in 2023, and he’s betting the ranch that O’Brien can find a new recipe with most of the same ingredients on offense.