Billy Nash: Luxembourg hit & miss but he's had excuses

Luxembourg may be a bit Marmite, but Billy Nash from Timeform is still a firm believer in the four year old.

Aidan O’Brien’s charge is the joint antepost favourite for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot next week but has form figures of 311751 since April 2022.

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That 7th-placed finish came in last season’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe where he went off as second favourite and he was a heavily-backed 10/11 fav in a Group 2 Curragh contest only to finish 5th.

However, Nash is a firm supporter of Luxembourg and he’s adamant that those two recent poor showings can be easily excused.

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“I’m a Luxembourg fan,” declared Billy. “People are saying he’s inconsistent or whatever. I think there’s genuine excuses for his poor efforts. You can put a line through his run in the Arc, he pulled a muscle.

“His comeback run at the Curragh was just in a messy race, they went no gallop. Visualisation got a great ride that day. Luxembourg looked right back to his best the last day in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

“Yes, he was well ridden by Ryan Moore. Some people tried to make the case that Bay Bridge was unlucky because he got caught in the pocket but he had over a furlong to go past Luxembourg and he couldn’t do it.

I don’t see why he’s going to turn the form around.

“I think Luxembourg, now that they’re getting a clear run at him, there might be a little bit more to come from him. I’d expect them to ride him very similarly at Ascot to how they did at the Curragh.

“This is the deepest division in racing at the moment. There’s literally only a couple of lbs between a handful of these horses but, at the moment, Luxembourg is top of the tree and I think he might confirm that.

“The one that I would be afraid of is My Prospero. I think the 1m just didn’t suit him the last and the step back up to 1m4f on better ground will suit. He’s a good horse but I think Luxembourg is the one to beat here.

Former top jock turned tipster and pundit extraordinaire Fran Berry was also on Paddy’s panel and he admitted he still needs some convincing. However he knows there’s a great horse there, provided he can get back to his early-career form.

“We’re going to find out if Luxembourg can back up runs,” Fran added. “I’ll forgive him the Arc last year, he seemed to be rushed and hard-trained to get to a peak for the Irish Champion Stakes after winning the Royal Whip.

He looked like a boxer on that occasion

“He was trained so hard. With soft ground and, maybe, just being below his best, you can forgive the Arc. It was a very good return to action off the back of that run winning the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

“For me, he’s a horse that, if he looks well in the ring and pitches up to what he did in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, I think he’s the one to beat.”

*Odds quoted on the widget are Future Racing / Ante-post prices which means that if your selection does not run in the race for whatever reason – you will lose your stake under traditional Ante-post rules.

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