Bitcoin Could Bottom in Q4 2022 and Enter New Bull Run in Q1 2023
The cycles of financial markets and the cryptocurrency market are characterized by a peculiar asymmetry. A bull market usually ends with extreme euphoria, which leads to a short-lived parabolic surge in price. The faster the increases at the end of the bull markets, the greater the chance of ending the speculative bubble.
Cryptocurrency market analyst @intocryptoverse asked his followers on Twitter how they feel about BTC going into Q4. 11,299 people answered that they are bearish.
Bitcoin's value is declining. The bear market usually lasts several quarters. It usually ends about a year after the peak. The bull market never started right after a bear. Bitcoin's price should not rise much in the first months of 2023. Twitter analyst @rektcapital reckons Bitcoin could bottom in Q4 2022.
2013-2014: 413 days from peak to bottom. 2017-2018: 364 days. 2018-2019: 333 days, down 84% from ATH.
There are many signals that indicate that the Bitcoin market is in the process of bottom formation and accumulation. Many of them relate to activity on exchanges. According to data released this week, increasing BTC outflows are taking place. The volume of Bitcoin on the exchange has been steadily dropping since the beginning of the bull market initiated in Q4 2020. However, the reversal of trend in price of BTC and declines in 2022 has not stopped the outflow of coins from the exchanges at all.
The current bear market is similar to the last 3 cycles. Bitcoin is currently in a six-month BUY phase. The optimistic prediction is that the $19,000 level will hold as support. If this scenario were to repeat now, Q4 2022 would be a period of consolidation and accumulation. Only in Q1 2023 could the bull market begin.
Bitcoin could bottom in Q4 2022 and enter a new bull run in the Q1 2023. Long-term technical indicators are used to find early bottoming signals. The monthly MACD and weekly RSI are the most important indicators. The lowest value of the R SI was recorded in June 2022. It was accompanied by a sideways action of Bitcoin price and several months of consolidation.
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