Blue Jays picks and props vs. Yankees Sept. 20: Bet on Gausman to lead Toronto to victory
The surging Toronto Blue Jays look to extend their win streak in the Bronx tonight behind Kevin Gausman.
The pregame narrative: Toronto won its fourth in a row in last night's series opener to hold onto the No. 2 wild-card spot. With Gausman going, the Jays are a slight road betting favourite over Michael King and the New York Yankees on Wednesday.
MLB oddsas of 8:42 a.m. ET on 09/20/2023.
Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees
Best Bet: Gausman over 17.5 outs (-134)
Gausman downright dominated the Yankees both times he faced them this season.
He threw seven innings in both contests, recording double-digit strikeouts each time. Both those starts came in his first 10 outings of the season, and he cleared 17.5 outs in eight of them.
Gausman hasn't exactly been the same workhorse since, so there's a little bit of caution here. He has completed six innings, which is needed for this prop to cash, in 11 of his last 18 starts. But five of those misses have come since August.
The right-hander hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in two of his three starts this month and he walked a season-high six batters his last time out. The other outing was a gem — eight innings of two-hit ball with 10 strikeouts — but it did come against the Kansas City Royals (28th in wRC+).
While those trends might deter some, a 17.5-out line for an ace is still appealing. And Gausman's success versus New York shouldn't be ignored.
He should see a similar lineup tonight to the ones he saw earlier in the season, and that group only managed one extra-base hit off him across 14 innings. On top of that, the uncharacteristic six walks he issued last game that drove up his pitch count should be taken with a grain of salt.
Gausman is walking hitters below the league-average rate and he faces an offence that is below average on the season, and has been since the second half as well as this month.
There aren't many threats in the Yankees' lineup outside of Aaron Judge, who hasn't been the same force since returning from a near-two-month IL stint in late July.
Judge is hitting .221/.384/.472 over those 48 games. New York's No. 4 hitter last night, Giancarlo Stanton, is hitting .179/.273/.407 over that same stretch with the second-highest K rate in MLB.
Key stat: Gausman is 10th in the AL in innings pitched.
Quick pick
Blue Jays to win (-120): A strong Gausman outing, as we're expecting, should put Toronto in a good position to win its fifth game in a row.
Gausman is Toronto's No. 1 arm, and despite the team going an underwhelming 15-14 in his starts, this is an excellent price to back the club at with him on the mound.
The Blue Jays are eight games up on the Yankees and are ahead of them in run differential by 85.
Toronto's lineup is largely healthy and has been significantly better, topping New York 109 to 91 in wRC+ since the all-star break.
King has been solid, but he hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches or five innings since transitioning into a starting role. That means his outing isn't likely to be all that long.
New York needed four innings from its bullpen last night and should need around the same tonight. With underwhelming swing-and-miss numbers (the group had one strikeout last night and is below average since the break), Toronto's lineup should be able to hold its own in the later innings.
