Blue Jays vs. Cardinals picks and odds for Opening Day: Back Manoah, Toronto to win

The pregame narrative: The Toronto Blue Jays, looking to get off on the right foot after a heartbreaking end to their 2022 postseason, kick things off in St. Louis on Thursday. Toronto will send breakout star Alek Manoah to the hill opposite Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas. Both pitchers were all-stars last year.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Cardinals picks and odds for the March 30 season opener at Busch Stadium.

Blue Jays vs. Cardinals picks overview

MLB odds as of 4:01 p.m. ET on 03/30/23.

Blue Jays vs. Cardinals picks

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-110)

Mikolas reached the 200-inning mark last season for the second time in his career, was worth 2.8 fWAR and compiled a 3.29 ERA.

The right-hander allowed one run over 12 innings this spring, in addition to one run over six frames for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. 

While he’s not dominant, Mikolas is dependable. And though he doesn’t miss bats (his career-high mark in K/9 is 7.04), he doesn’t issue many free passes nor get burned too hard by the long ball. Mikolas also tosses in a great pitcher’s park and he took full advantage of that last season.

In 14 home starts, he held opposing hitters to a .192 batting average, 0.84 WHIP and a 2.38 ERA (compared to marks of .254, 1.21 and 4.10 on the road). While the splits aren’t as stark for his career, he’s without question been a better pitcher in St. Louis’ run-suppressing environment. 

If that all sounds good, Manoah is even better. 

The 25-year-old was superb during his first taste of the big leagues in 2021 and turned it up a notch last season. 

Manoah ranked fourth among qualified starters with a 2.24 ERA and 10th with a 0.99 WHIP.

While his strikeout rate dipped, improved control and a much better job at keeping the ball in the yard led to a strong 3.35 FIP (top 10 in the AL). Away from Toronto’s Rogers Centre, which is kind to hitters, Manoah posted a 2.07 road ERA.

The big righty made five appearances this spring, getting up to six innings in each of his last two starts and 80 pitches in his final outing. He should be able to provide length right off the bat and help keep runs at a premium.

There are major offensive contributors on both sides, including 2021 AL MVP runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and last year’s NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, but we’ll bank on strong pitching being the story of the day.

Key stat: The under cashed in 20 of Manoah’s 31 starts last season.

Quick picks

Blue Jays to win (-117): Toronto clearly has the pitching advantage in this matchup and its offence projects to be the best in the AL in terms of runs per game, according to FanGraphs.

While the Cardinals can be had at plus money, that’s not enough for us to overlook the value on the Blue Jays with one of the game’s best pitchers on the mound.

There’s little juice on this line and we’ll happily drink it.

Mikolas under 4.5 strikeouts (-117): We talked up Mikolas earlier but noted the lack of strikeouts, which we’ll look to pounce on here.

This line was in the -140s early Wednesday afternoon but is a much more appetizing -117 at the time of this writing.

Mikolas has had a below-average strikeout rate (K%, per FanGraphs) in each of his last four seasons. While the Blue Jays had some roster turnover, they were one of the five hardest teams, alongside St. Louis, to retire on strikes last season.