Blue Jays vs. Rays MLB best bets 4/14: Odds, picks, predictions, & props
With two weeks of the 2023 MLB season in the books, the Tampa Bay Rays have run away as the early baseball storyline of the year. They have combined elite pitching and sizzling-hot hitting to start the season 13-0 — and an incredible 12-1 on the run line — making anyone who has bet on them a very, very happy camper. But Tampa's first real test of the year comes this weekend, as it begins a three-game series with fellow AL East powerhouse Toronto on Friday night at 7:07 p.m. ET. Today we will discuss the odds for Blue Jays-Rays, and reveal our best bets for this clash of MLB titans.
As Jerry Reed once sang, "When you're hot, you're hot." Tampa has been smoldering out of the gate this season, hitting the cover off the ball and showcasing a pitching rotation that would make the '90s Braves smile. The Rays' stats and rankings across the board have been utterly amazing. You have to see the collective excellence to believe it:
2023 Tampa Bay Rays team stats and MLB ranking (Hitting/Pitching)
Talk about a dominating start to the season. Tampa has a whopping plus-71 run differential, the third-highest mark through 13 games in MLB history, powered by a +58 at home. But it has certainly helped that 10 of the Rays' first 13 games were at Tropicana Field. Their 4.3-run average margin of victory on the road — while still great — is 1.5 runs per game less than their 5.8-run average winning margin at the Trop. Could their historic start be cut down in size this weekend at Rogers Centre?
It almost certainly will. Tampa's 5.5-run average margin of victory is nearly double the Brewers, who rank second with a 1.9 MOV. The Dodgers have finished as the league leaders in MOV in each of the past four seasons, posting a 1.6 MOV twice and a 2.2 MOV twice. This level of across-the-board dominance in the majors is quite literally unsustainable.
And doubters have plenty of support to their argument that the Rays are not nearly as good as their start might suggest. Central to their narrative: strength of schedule. Tampa has faced the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics, and Red Sox to start the season. All four of those clubs currently sit in the basement of their respective divisions. This weekend's tilt with the Blue Jays will mark the Rays' first series against a club with a winning record.
Will Toronto spoil the fun and keep the Rays from the record books with the first 14-0 start in history? Or will Tampa continue its torrid opening-season run and take Rogers Centre by storm? Let's take a look at the pitching matchup, dive into the odds, and uncover our favorite bets for tonight's AL East tilt.
Blue Jays vs. Rays: Pitching matchup
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios (RHP) — 0-2, 11.17 ERA, 12 SO
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) — 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 15 SO
On paper, this sure looks like a solid matchup for Tampa, and a great opportunity for the Rays to etch their names into the history books as the owners of the best regular-season start in MLB history. The days of Berrios making the All-Star Game (2018 and 2019 as a Twin) and finishing top 10 in Cy Young voting (2021 as as a Twin and Blue Jay) seem like distant memories for the 28-year-old. Berrios gave up 100 earned runs last season, the most in the AL, and he has already served up 12 runs in just 9.1 innings in 2023.
Rasmussen, meanwhile, has sparkled through two starts. He has yet to allow a run, and he leads the majors with an 0.231 WHIP. Through 13 innings, he has allowed two base-runners — two hits and zero walks — while striking out 15 on a 35.7 percent strikeout rate. Opponents are batting .071 against him, and just under 52 percent of all contact he has surrendered have been ground balls. Ladies and gentlemen, meet your Cy Young Award frontrunner through two weeks.
Blue Jays vs. Rays: Odds, picks, predictions
To nobody's surprise, the Rays opened as betting favorites to continue their winning ways. Rasmussen has been the most unhittable starter in a rotation that also features Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs. And six of Toronto's nine everyday hitters have averaged .200 or worse against him. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the only current Blue Jay who has ever taken Rasmussen yard.
Speaking of going yard, the Rays obliterated Berrios for nine homers in three meetings last season. His collective ERA against Tampa last season: 6.08. His WHIP: 1.875. Berrios allowed a total of 25 baserunners — 21 hits, four walks — across just 13.1 innings against Tampa. And that was before Kevin Cash's club decided to become the best offense in the MLB.
The first seven batters in Tampa's lineup all have three or more home runs. Seven different Rays hitters have batting averages of .308 or better, and four have double-digit RBIs. Randy Arozarena, who has looked a lot like he did in his breakout 2021 playoff run, has 16 RBIs and a .314/.379/.549 slash line.
And Arozarena has plenty of lineup protection behind him, especially from 22-year-old slugging shortstop Wander Franco. Franco seems to be ready for his full emergence into stardom — he already has four dingers, 12 RBIs, a .321 average, and a 1.048 OPS.
The Jays have plenty of sauce offensively — they lead the majors with 133 hits — but they haven't fully tapped into their power game just yet. Toronto has just 15 homers on the season, fewer than 12 other Major League teams. We're betting John Schneider's club won't suddenly ignite the power stroke tonight — not with Rasmussen looking as sharp as he has through two starts. Tampa Bay should continue its historic run this evening, and we're gobbling up the Rays' run line at +125 like the 11:00 p.m. SportsCenter will be gobbling up their record-breaking 14-0 start.
Prediction: Rays 6, Blue Jays 3 — Tampa Bay wins (-125) and covers the 1.5 run line (+125), while the game just barely goes UNDER (9).
