Blues vs Oilers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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28 February 2024

Blues vs Oilers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

As great as the Oilers offense has been, the defense has been bleeding just as many goals. That makes the Over appetizing no matter who they play and that's where our NHL picks are looking when the Blues come to town tonight.

The Edmonton Oilers are 11 games removed from their historic 16-game winning streak but the victories have not been coming at the same rate since.

Although they host the St. Louis Blues tonight who lost in Winnipeg last night, thanks to poor special teams and the Blues winning 6-3 just two weeks ago, this won't be an easy matchup for the -280 favorites.

With the Blues hungry after losing the first game of the back-to-back coupled with the Oilers reverting to a dead Over team, should bettors expect two-way scoring tonight on a fairly discounted Over?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Blues vs. Oilers for Wednesday, February 27.

Blues vs Oilers odds

Blues vs Oilers predictions

Since the Edmonton Oilers had their 16-game winning streak snap vs. the Golden Knights in the first game back from the All-Star break, Edmonton has gone 5-5 SU while scoring 4.00 goals per game but also allowing 4.10 per match.

The Over is 7-3 across those 10 contests including a 6-3 loss to the St. Louis Blues two weeks ago where the Blues had eight power-play opportunities and scored on two.

The penalty kill has been a real issue for the Oilers of late and combined with their elite power play of 30% since the break, Edmonton has reverted to the Over team it was last year and in the early months of the 2023-24 season.

St. Louis is drawing penalties at a very high rate of late (third in the league in February) and the 6-3 meeting two weeks ago proved these two clubs could see plenty of time with the extra attacker.

Two-way scoring is something I’m expecting to see tonight. St. Louis lost last night so it won’t be mailing in the game tonight, Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner has a 4.04 GAA and a .878 SV% over his last seven starts, and both power plays are live.

Over Edmonton’s last 10 games, both teams have scored at least three goals in seven of them. Tonight, that prop is +175 and worth a sniff.

Early goals should be expected, as well. The Oilers have gone Over the first-period total in 59 of their last 89 games (+16.05 units / 11% ROI) while the Blues have returned an even better profit in 1P Overs, cashing it in 29 of their last 41 away games (+12.25 units / 21% ROI).

With Connor McDavid posting 20 assists over an eight-game point streak and Zach Hyman scoring in five straight games, the Oilers offense is always capable of playing Over hockey, but it’s been their goaltending and defensive play of late that has me betting the Blues will contribute to the score sheet tonight.

My best bet: Over 6.5 (-110 at SIA)

Blues vs Oilers same-game parlay

Blues +1.5

Over 6.5

Both teams to score in first period

No need to get greedy with the moneyline, so I'm taking the Blues at +1.5 in a game I think they are a live +200-plus dog. Both teams have been very profitable to the first-period Over and a solid start from the Blues — who played last night would — go very far in cashing this SGP.

I don't see the 6-3 meeting two weeks ago as an outlier and am hopeful to see similar results. That match had plenty of scoring chances and 11 power-play opportunities.

The Oilers are a dead-Over team right now with how well the offense is scoring but also because of their goaltending. Edmonton could get up and blow the lead, or they could mount a multi-goal comeback... there are a lot of outs for this Over.

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Blues vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Oilers opened as a -225 home favorite tonight at SIA but have taken money, moving the moneyline to -275 by noon today. Edmonton has certainly fallen back to Earth after that 16-game winning streak with a 5-6 SU record since the break, but I think the Blues are live dogs tonight at +220 despite losing last night in Winnipeg.

St. Louis is just seven games removed from an impressive 7-1 SU stretch and sits just six points out of the final playoff spot in the West. They beat the Oilers 6-3 at home just two weeks ago in a game that had a ton of scoring chances on both sides and finished with 8.98 expected goals and 11 total power plays.

That matchup featured the same goalie battle bettors will likely see tonight in Stuart Skinner and Jordan Binnington. The latter was the difference in that game and enters tonight with the better numbers, giving the visitors a slight edge in goaltending as Skinner has a GAA north of 4.00 over his last seven starts.

The Blues also have a chance to produce on the power play as they did twice in the 6-3 win. They’ve been drawing a lot of penalties of late while the Oilers’ penalty kill has been horrendous in February, ranking 31st in the league at a 65% success rate.

The visitors will also get top-four defenseman Justin Faulk back in the lineup, which is a boost to the club both offensively and defensively.

Again, this may sound redundant, but the Oilers are mirroring their October/November ways where they saw totals of 6.5 or 7 every night. Skinner is not an elite goalie, St. Louis proved it can keep pace with Edmonton’s offense, and this total is on the move to the Over — moving from an expensive 6 to 6.5 at -110 aside.

I like goals here and if the +220 moneyline scares you on the Blues, the +1.5 puck line is -110.

Blues vs Oilers betting trend to know

The Blues have gone Over the first-period total in 29 of their last 41 away games (+12.25 units / 21% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Oilers.

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