Boise State vs. Northwestern Predictions, Odds & Picks: Can Broncos Snap March Madness Drought?

With plenty of conference pride on the line, the 10th-seeded Boise State Broncos meet the seventh-seeded Northwestern Wildcats in the first round Thursday evening. Read on for our best Boise State vs. Northwestern prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

To say the Mountain West Conference struggled in the NCAA Tournament recently is an understatement. A MWC squad never made it past the Sweet 16, and teams from this conference are actually 0-7 in the first round in the past three tournaments.

By the time Boise State takes the floor Thursday in Sacramento, one would expect that drought to end. San Diego State and Utah State are both favored in their respective Round of 64 matchups that afternoon. The Broncos (24-9) can bolster their conference’s standing by earning their first-ever tourney win over the Northwestern Wildcats (21-11), but will they?

Here is our best Boise State vs. Northwestern prediction (odds via Barstool Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Boise State vs. Northwestern odds

This game will be a grinder, and can honestly be on your least-important television Thursday evening. Sidebar: I’ll be rocking a three TV setup in my living room all weekend.

Boise State and Northwestern are similar in a lot of ways. Neither team plays very fast and  both hang their hats on defense. Northwestern ranks 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Boise State is 14th. Senior guards Boo Buie (Northwestern) and Marcus Shaver (Boise State) lead their respective teams and can put on a show. 

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Most of all, neither had any success in the NCAA Tournament. Northwestern is dancing for just the third time and never made it to a second weekend. Boise State actually made the Big Dance three years in a row now, but is still searching for that first tourney victory in its 10th try.

In a true toss-up of a game, side with the Broncos’ experience to ultimately prevail. ShotQuality projects a 67-65 victory for head coach Leon Rice’s squad, and we tend to agree. I’m foolishly betting on a Mountain West Conference team yet again. 

Boise State vs. Northwestern best odds

Barstool (+108)

March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.

Boise State opened as a short favorite, but the market moved in Northwestern's direction. So much so that we believe the best bang for our buck is to take the Broncos on the moneyline.

Most of our top-rated sportsbooks sit between +100 and +105 on the moneyline for the underdog, so take advantage of Barstool’s offering of +108 while you can. This is a play at +105 or better, as we project Boise State to be a 1.5-point favorite in this one.

Boise State vs. Northwestern odds analysis

Boise State began as the favorite in this matchup, laying -1.5 when lines were first released Sunday. Northwestern is now a 1.5-point favorite across the board, as the spread never touched higher than 2 on either side. The total sits at 128 after opening at 128.5.

Boise State vs. Northwestern game info

• Date: Thursday, March 16, 7:35 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV
• Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA

Boise State-Northwestern pick made 3/14/2023 at 5:32 p.m. ET.

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