Borussia Dortmund vs Koln prediction, odds, best bets, live stream, TV channel for Bundesliga derby
The Bundesliga title race is full of drama and intrigue, and Borussia Dortmund take the field on Saturday knowing they need three points to keep pace as they host nearby derby rivals Koln in German top-flight action.
Dortmund's slip last time out against Schalke saw them drop two points behind first-place Bayern, and with three teams five points adrift all level, Dortmund not only will want to maintain stride with the leaders but also keep those behind them at arm's length.
Injuries are a concern for BVB and they will be missing a host of key attacking players as they take on a team that's bothered them in recent history. Dortmund have not yet lost in league play in 2023, collecting a league-best 19 points, but they have only beaten Koln once in the last five meetings.
The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 53.7% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 43 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 38 of 64 match outcomes via his three-way moneyline leans to date.
Borussia Dortmund vs Koln match facts
- Date: Saturday, March 18
- Kickoff Time: 1:30 pm ET / 5:30 pm GMT / 4:30 am AEDT (Sun, Mar. 19)
- Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
- Official: Daniel Siebert
- Last meeting: RB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia Dortmund (Sept. 10, 2022 | Bundesliga)
Borussia Dortmund vs Koln prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Borussia Dortmund (-225)
- Against the spread lean (handicap): Dortmund -1.5 (+115)
- Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Koln
Borussia Dortmund have had troubles with Koln in the past, but they're just too talented to fall short here.
The slip against Schalke last time out hurt their title charge, but BVB shouldn't end up with another negative result against the 12th-placed side in the table.
Borussia Dortmund vs Koln best bet
- Pick: Under 3 goals
Here's what the betting market thinks of Borussia Dortmund's swarming attack: Koln haven't scored for four straight league matches, and yet the over 2.5 total goals is at -175!
We can take advantage of this skew, as Koln can't score and Dortmund have significant absences to deal with. Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi, two very in-form players, are out injured, and Emre Can is suspended for yellow card accumulation. Gio Reyna, Donyell Malen, and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens are talented young players, but they don't present the same attacking threat.
Raphael Guerreiro moved into more of an attacking role as a result and did well against Schalke last time out, but Koln are far better defensively, and have been very unlucky with a league-high -9.16 differential between xGA and actual goals conceded. You can take the under 2.5 goal mark at good value, but bumping it to 3 to hedge a bit still pays just slightly under even money.
Borussia Dortmund vs Koln prop bet
- Pick: Jude Bellingham 1+ shots on target
- Odds: 1/1 (SkyBet)
The England midfielder has so much more to his game than goals and assists, but he loves to crop up in front of goal on occasion, ripping multiple shots in five of his last 10 league appearances, plus four shots over the two legs against Chelsea. When he does, he makes the most of it, with a solid mark of 0.12 xG per shot, so he's very capable of putting them on frame.
With Dortmund expected to control possession in this match but potentially face some scoring frustrations, expect Bellingham to let fly from distance, and he should be able to put at least one of them on target.
