Bowl eligibility for OSU still in reach with stumbling Big 12

Oklahoma State’s loss to South Alabama, to put it bluntly, which fans and pundits have, was bad.

How bad? A 33-7 loss to a program only in its 10th full season of FBS football.

Could OSU's 17-year bowl game/winning season streak be in peril? Time to sound the alarm, Cowboy fans?

Not so fast.

Despite the blowout loss to the Jaguars and many uncertainties within the roster, a path to bowl eligibility remains and may not be all that far-fetched. Gundy's teams have previously suffered perplexing losses in nonconference play and still found a way to gain bowl eligibility — or more.

Saturday marked the fifth time the Cowboys have dropped a game to a Group of Five opponent during the Gundy era. The others?

Two losses came against Houston (2006 and 2009), then a member of Conference USA.

Another came in 2007, when the Cowboys traveled to Troy and lost by 18, marking Zac Robinson's takeover at quarterback.

The fourth came on the controversial play that shouldn't have been. The Hail Mary throw on an extra down after time had expired, propelling the Central Michigan Chippewas over a Top 25 OSU squad in 2016.

And yet, the Cowboys managed bowl eligibility each of those years, winning nine games and securing a Cotton Bowl berth in 2009, and winning 10 in 2016 on their way to an Alamo Bowl rout of Colorado.

Still, getting over Saturday's setback, and moving on strong, may not look as promising. At least not yet.

“Mike Gundy has been rotating three QBs — one of them is his son — to start the season,” wrote The Athletic’s national college football writer Stewart Mandel. “The powder keg exploded Saturday against South Alabama — to be fair, a very good Sun Belt program, but still … 33-7?”

The good news for OSU: much of the Big 12 is off to a stumbling start.

Nine of the league's 14 teams have a loss and four have fallen twice.

Baylor surrendered 42 points in a Week 1 home loss to Texas State. Texas Tech, widely considered to be a dark horse for a Big 12 championship game berth, lost to Wyoming on the road to open its season and fell again to Oregon.

Iowa State, OSU’s opponent Saturday, is fresh off a loss to the Ohio Bobcats. Kansas State, as the nation's No. 15-ranked squad and carrying CFP hopes, was upset at Missouri last weekend.

Houston lost to Rice and managed just 16 points on a shaky TCU defense. Speaking of the Horned Frogs, they were toppled at home by Colorado in their opener; their follow-up to a national title game appearance in January.

Texas and Oklahoma, each without a loss, are the only Big 12 teams in the rankings. The conference's other three unbeatens − BYU, Kansas and UCF − haven't moved the needle nationally, although the Cougars do own a victory over Arkansas.

So a path to an 18th consecutive bowl game isn’t out of reach for the Cowboys. Although with a roster lacking star quality, OSU seemingly must make the most of its matchups with similarly struggling squads.

And remember, the Big 12 is guaranteed at least eight bowl spots. Well, if it can produce that many teams with at least a .500 record.

“The Big 12 may be looking at a worst-case scenario for its final season with Texas and Oklahoma (soon-to-be SEC programs) — that being, Texas and Oklahoma may be its best teams,” Mandel wrote.

College Football Playoff Bowl Games:

• Rose Bowl
• Sugar Bowl
• CFP National Championship (NRG Stadiumn/Houston, Texas)

Big 12 Bowl Game Tie-ins:

• Cotton Bowl (Big 12 vs SEC)
• Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 vs Pac-12)
• Alamo Bowl (Big 12 vs Pac-12)
• Texas Bowl (Big 12 vs SEC)
• Liberty Bowl (Big 12 vs SEC)
• Pop Tarts Bowl (Big 12 vs ACC)
• First Responders Bowl (Big 12 vs AAC)
• Armed Forces Bowl (Big 12 vs Mountain West)
• Independence Bowl (Big 12 vs Pac 12)
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Big 12 vs Big 10)

Odds for remaining OSU games:

Saturday, Sept. 23: @ Iowa State 

Win Probability: 59%

As always, ISU’s stronghold is its defense. Simultaneously, its offense is its vulnerability, as shown in a 10-7 loss to the MAC’s Ohio Bobcats last week.

Friday, Oct. 6:vs Kansas State

Win Probability: 19% 

The thing OSU’ defense can afford to face – as of now – is a prestigious run game. That’s what they’ll get in running back Treshaun Ward.

Saturday, Oct. 14: vs Kansas

Win Probability: 45%

The Jayhawks certainly look the part offensively, averaging roughly 38 points per game thus far. But their 1-7 finish (after a 5-0) start a season prior has sparked some questions regarding their legitimacy.

Saturday, Oct. 21: @ West Virginia

Win Probability: 51%

The Mountaineers were still picked to finish last in the preseason Big 12 media poll. And their Week 3 win over Pittsburgh is looking less pristine by the day. Still, Morgantown is known for being a difficult environment for opposing teams.

Saturday, Oct. 28: vs Cincinnati (Homecoming)

Win Probability: 52%

The Cowboy defense has yet to face a true mobile quarterback, which is what they’ll get in Emory Jones. Nonetheless, some of OSU’s biggest upset wins have transpired on Homecoming.

Saturday, Nov. 4: vs Oklahoma (Bedlam)

Win Probability: 9%

We’ve seen this movie before. And 91 times out of 117 matchups so far, this game has gone the Sooners’ way. Given the fact that OU may have a legitimate defense this year, complemented by its offense which averages nearly 56 points per game, a Bedlam finale win appears to be far-fetched. Yes, even at Boone Pickens Stadium.

Saturday, Nov. 11: @ UCF

Win Probability: 25%

The UCF offense has been rolling thus far. The Bounce House (FBC Mortgage Stadium) is one of the more daunting atmospheres for visiting teams. It’s hard to envision an OSU win in Orlando as of now.

Saturday, Nov. 18: @ Houston

Win Probability: 66%

A narrow win at home over UTSA. A loss to crosstown rival Rice, one that saw a quick 28-0 deficit for UH. After a blowout home loss to TCU, Houston’s offense has surpassed the 17-point mark just once thus far. Oh, and the defense isn’t great either.

Saturday, Nov. 25: vs BYU

Win Probability: 55%

Sure, the win over Arkansas in Fayetteville was impressive. But a schedule with games against a Sun Belt, AAC or Mountain West squad mixed with ones against Power Five schools are no more for BYU. Its roster depth will truly be tested come Big 12 play.