Bowl projections for Virginia Tech, JMU, Liberty

Projecting bowl matchups is easy. Just correctly forecast the winners of this weekend’s 10 conference title games, anticipate how the College Football Playoff selection committee will respond and read the minds of ESPN programming executives.

Translation: Good luck and Godspeed.

Pairings for the 41 games will emerge throughout Sunday, and we could have a de facto Virginia championship game in the Big Easy and/or Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry facing a mayonnaise bath.

Let’s start with James Madison, among 12 bowl-bound teams from the Sun Belt Conference, a group that also includes Old Dominion. But the league is contracted with only five bowls, leaving Commissioner Keith Gill and his staff, in concert with ESPN Events and member schools, to place the remaining seven teams in games managed by the network.

As a program in its second and final season transitioning from the Championship Subdivision to the Bowl Subdivision, the Dukes (11-1) are ineligible for the conference title game. But they are the only team from the league ranked in this week’s Associated Press poll (24th), and they drew a record crowd estimated at 26,000 for ESPN’s College GameDay broadcast two weeks ago.

Might that brand power result in JMU heading to a premier Sun Belt destination such as the New Orleans Bowl — imagine Dukes faithful descending on Bourbon Street — or Cure Bowl in Orlando? Or as a Sun Belt newcomer, would JMU be relegated elsewhere?

The New Orleans Bowl is also affiliated with Conference USA, where Liberty is a first-year member. Indeed, the Flames (12-0) host New Mexico State (10-3) in Friday’s CUSA championship game.

A JMU-Liberty clash for Virginia supremacy in New Orleans, or elsewhere, would be fascinating and a rare opportunity for a second-tier bowl to showcase two ranked Group of Five teams.

But if the Flames win Friday, they could earn the New Year’s Six bowl bid guaranteed to the highest-rated champion among the Group of Five conferences. Tulane of the American Athletic at No. 22 and No. 24 Liberty are the only Group of Five teams ranked this week by the CFP committee.

The Green Wave are 5½-point favorites over Southern Methodist in Saturday’s American title game, and the Mustangs are without quarterback Preston Stone, who sustained a broken leg in last week’s victory over Navy. Unless Tulane stumbles, Liberty, among just four CUSA bowl teams, will remain part of the conference’s postseason equation.

A quarterback injury is also central to Saturday’s ACC championship game, where Florida State faces Louisville. The undefeated and No. 4 Seminoles are likely playoff-bound with a victory, but they’re without first-team, all-conference quarterback Jordan Travis, who sustained a season-ending leg injury two weeks ago.

Yet the FSU-Louisville result doesn’t figure to dramatically alter the ACC’s overall postseason dance card.

Now quarterbacked by Tate Rodemaker, the Seminoles (12-0) will head either to a CFP semifinal in the Sugar or Rose Bowl, or another New Year’s Six game as an at-large. The Cardinals (10-2) appear Orange Bowl-bound win or lose.

Oddly enough, the Georgia-Alabama SEC title game likely will impact Virginia Tech and other ACC bowl squads more than the FSU-Louisville outcome.

The Hokies’ 6-6 record doesn’t approach program standards, but the progress from last year’s 3-8 finish coupled with Saturday’s 55-17 demolition of Virginia likely will motivate legions of their fans to attend a bowl within a reasonable distance. Moreover, ACC teams such as Boston College (6-6), Syracuse (6-6), Georgia Tech (6-6), Miami (7-5), Duke (7-5) and North Carolina (8-4) bring negligible energy to this postseason.

Virginia Tech’s momentum appeals especially to the Military Bowl in Annapolis, Maryland, and Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, North Carolina, the latter renowned for dousing the victorious coach with several gallons of sponsor product. And this is where the Alabama-Georgia result comes in.

If the top-ranked Bulldogs prevail, the Big Ten’s Ohio State would be the ACC’s probable Orange Bowl opponent, in which case the ACC inherits the Big Ten’s slot in the Tampa-based ReliaQuest Bowl. The ReliaQuest, in turn, would likely select Notre Dame, since the Fighting Irish enter the ACC’s bowl mix when they don’t qualify for a New Year’s Six game.

Notre Dame (9-3) in Tampa could well leave N.C. State (9-3), Clemson (8-4) and UNC to fill the ACC’s contracted spots in the TaxSlayer (Jacksonville, Florida), Pop-Tarts (Orlando) and Holiday (San Diego), with Duke and Miami then going to the Pinstripe (New York) and Sun (El Paso).

In that scenario, the Duke’s Mayo would pounce on Virginia Tech, which bowled in Charlotte in 2016 and ’19 and, just this month, brought thousands of fans to the city for a women’s basketball game against Iowa. The ACC’s opponent in Charlotte will be from the SEC.

But if Alabama upsets Georgia, either the Crimson Tide or Bulldogs would likely go to the Orange, and the ACC would not take the Big Ten’s place in Tampa. Clemson could then fall to the Duke’s Mayo, and despite their disappointing season, the Tigers’ four-game winning streak and television appeal would be irresistible.

The Military Bowl would then gladly welcome the Hokies for a third time — their previous appearances were 2014 and ’18 — to play an AAC opponent.

As for the long odds of Virginia Tech sneaking into a warm-weather bowl, heed the words of a source well-versed in ACC bowl selections.