Bowling Green vs. Minnesota Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Bowling Green Falcons (7-4, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O/U) meet with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7, 3-9 ATS, 5-7 O/U) in the Quick Lane Bowl on Tuesday evening in Detroit. Bowling Green went 7-5 along with a 5-3 mark in MAC play. Minnesota issued a 5-7 record and 3-6 in Big Ten play. These squads last met in 2021 in a game Bowling Green won by a 14-10 score.
Struggling with handicapping? Try our NCAAF Predictions!
Bowling Green Enters Bowl with Confidence
The Bowling Green Falcons head into the bowl a winner of five of their last six games. The squad posted a 2-3 mark in non-conference play including a loss to Michigan and a road victory against Georgia Tech of the ACC. Bowling Green lost 32-31 against Toledo in November and followed with a 34-10 road win against Western Michigan to cover the three-point spread in the last game of the regular season. The Falcons have covered in four of their last five games.
Connor Bazelak was solid late in the year, posting 286 and 217 passing yards in his last two performances. The senior QB reached 300 yards once and has collected 1714 passing yards and an 11:7 TD to INT ratio on the season.
Bowling Green will run more than pass. Terion Stewart has surpassed 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games and has issued a total of 762 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per rush. Stewart is dealing with a leg injury and is questionable. Harold Fannin Jr. has brought in at least 89 receiving yards in three of his last four games. The sophomore tight end has 573 receiving yards. The Bowling Green offense has scored at least 30 points in three straight games.
— BGSU Football (@BG_Football) November 22, 2023
The Falcons defense is their top strength. They only allowed more than 27 points on three occasions in MAC play. The group allowed 19 points in a 49-19 win against Kent State last month and only conceded 10 points on 258 total yards against Western Michigan. The pass defense is marked 25th while the rush defense is 43rd.
Bowling Green is averaging 26.3 points on the season, ranking them 73rd. They are holding opponents to 23.5 points, placing them 49th.
Minnesota Reaches Bowl with Only Five Wins
The Minnesota Golden Gophers had a shaky season and enters the bowl on a four-game losing streak. Usually, a program needs to register a benchmark of six wins to earn bowl eligibility but were able to sneak in with just five victories. Minnesota recorded wins against Iowa and Michigan State but proceeded to drop the last four bouts due to poor defense. They lost a narrow 27-26 decision to Illinois in early November and were marked 2.5 point dogs in a 28-14 home loss to Wisconsin to conclude the season. The Golden Gophers have covered in only one of their last five bouts.
Athan Kaliakmanis entered the transfer portal and will not play. The sophomore QB has recorded 1839 passing yards and a 14:9 TD to INT ratio on the season. Cole Kramer will be under center. The senior QB has only thrown 14 passes in his entire collegiate career.
Minnesota runs more than most teams. Darius Taylor was having an outstanding season but was injured after five games, collecting 591 rushing yards. Jordan Nubin rushed for 93 yards in the loss to Wisconsin late last month. The sophomore RB will be relied on in this game. He has reported 535 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry. Daniel Jackson is having a stellar year. The senior WR has brought in at least 100 yards in two of his last three bouts and has 831 receiving yards on the season. The Minnesota offense ranks 125th in total yards per game. The offense reached 30 points on three occasions this season.
— Minnesota Football (@GopherFootball) November 25, 2023
The Golden Gophers' defense is mediocre. The unit allowed just 10 points in the conference opener but struggled in a majority of Big Ten games. They gave up 52 points to Michigan and 37 to Ohio State. The defense squandered over 400 yards in the loss to Wisconsin last month. The pass defense is decent, coming in at 58th but the rush defense is pegged 75th.
Minnesota is averaging 20.2 points, marking them 118th. They are conceding an average of 26.9 points, placing them 71st in the country.
Saturday's Top Plays
Today's Top Plays
Tom Macrina - 11-1 NFL Run - Snag Tom's Saturday NFL Super Best Bet For Just $29 -
Trent Pruitt - 8-0-1 CFB Run - Snatch up Trent's CFB Bowl Game Of The Day For Just $29 -
Will Rogers - 9-4 CBB Run - Grab Will's CBB Best Bet For Just $30 -
Brick Haus Sports - 14-5-2 CFB Run - Snag Bricks CFB Mega Best Bet For Just $29 -
David Hess - 10-3 NHL Totals Run - Grab David's NHL Totals Destroyer For Just $29 -
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Rating:
The Bowling Green Falcons did manage to win seven games but play in a mid-major conference. Minnesota is accustomed to playing dominant Big Ten opponents. They earned victories against Iowa and Michigan State this season.
Furthermore, Bowling Green is not a strong offensive squad. They rank 105th in the country in total yards per game. They only averaged 23 points in three games against power conference opponents this season. Minnesota was solid against mid-major opponents, beating Eastern Michigan of the MAC 25-6 along with a convincing 35-24 win against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. This spread is smaller because Minnesota's #1 QB Athan Kaliakmanis is not playing. I don't view that as a huge deal considering Minnesota only attempts a pass in 40% of its offensive plays, one of the lowest in the country. Minnesota has a potent RB in Jordan Nubin who rushed for 93 yards against Wisconsin. The Falcons rush defense is mediocre, ranking 43rd.
Prediction: Minnesota Golden Gophers -4.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Rating:
I expect this one to go over. This is a low total of only 39.5 points. Bowling Green will generate some offense. They have a good RB in Terion Stewart who is averaging a stellar 6.1 yards per rush and Minnesota has a weak rush defense, squandering an average of 154 rushing yards per game, ranking them 75th.
In addition, Bowling Green was able to contain its MAC opponents but containing a Big Ten offense is a different story. As mentioned, Minnesota has a solid running back and their #1 WR Daniel Jackson has recorded over 100 receiving yards in four of his last six games. Minnesota scored 60 points in their two bouts against mid-major opponents this season. The over is 4-1 in the Falcons' last five clashes.
Prediction: Over 39.5
Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.
