B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Semifinals and NY6

For all its glory, the bowl season is largely an appetizer. It's a magnificent appetizer, to be clear. But its current purpose is well defined.

The main course, of course, is the College Football Playoff, and the very tightly packed postseason has arrived.

Unlike many years, there are no massive point spreads. Games between Alabama and Michigan and Texas and Washington are likely to be close. Well, at least if the oddsmakers have their say.

Locks of the Week has produced winners in Week 0, the regular season, and the bowl season. It will now do the same in the playoff with only two games to choose from.

Let's dive in.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

It's one of the biggest totals of the bowl season, but we're not shying away from it.

Bo Nix will apparently play, which is a big deal for the Ducks and this number. There is some concern, of course, that he won't play the whole game. Still, it feels like the Ducks offense should operate long enough to do plenty of damage.

Liberty, meanwhile, is a fascinating opponent. While Group of Five teams are always a tough study in games like this, this team feels like a viable opponent. Head coach Jamey Chadwell has had this team producing all season.

Sure, their schedule looked a little different than Oregon's. Even still, the Flames produced the nation's No. 5 scoring offense. As such, they should find some success.

The line is enormous, and it might be for good reason. But the points should fly, and the activity should be a great deal of fun to watch.

Even now, a great deal of uncertainty is hovering around Ohio State.

Opt-outs, transfers and draft departures having gutted the roster, and the status of Marvin Harrison Jr. for this game remains somewhat in question. (If we had to guess, he isn't likely to play. But we hope we're wrong.)

Despite all of that, Ohio State should still be in a strong position to win this football game.

The line has moved around some, and the Buckeyes have gotten some support as the game has gotten closer. But for all that Ohio State won't bring back, the reality is that the roster is still loaded with former blue-chip recruits.

Devin Brown will get the start at QB, and he'll play we;; enough. Expect the Buckeyes' defense to do the heavy lifting throughout against a capable Missouri offense.

There simply aren't enough words to cover all the variables in this game.

Florida State is dealing with injuries, draft declarations, and heartbreak. Georgia, to a much lesser degree, is dealing with at least some of the same.

The star power that likely won't be on the field will be robust. But the major difference in this game will come at quarterback.

Carson Beck, who is returning to Athens next season, will make the start for Georgia. Brock Glenn, who we saw against Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, will once again suit up for FSU.

This one really isn't all that complicated. The Seminoles have had a magical year, although the last six weeks are hard to wrap your head around in so many ways. The toll of this journey and all the developments will unfold in a game that will likely feel over nine minutes in.

Given the way the season ended, Alabama is likely to garner plenty of betting interest. Whenever Alabama plays, that is usually the case.

In terms of this specific matchup, however, the momentum is fascinating. Michigan is coming off a so-so win over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Crimson Tide, meanwhile, conquered No. 1 Georgia to gain access to the playoff. (A slew of controversy was generated along the way.)

What we tend to do for games like this is overreact. We're going to overreact to Alabama's emphatic win. We're going to overreact to Michigan's uninspiring victory as well. It's what we do.

Alabama's close call against Auburn? A distant memory. Michigan's emphatic win against Ohio State? The same.

In terms of play on the field, this one is filled with fascinating schematic matchups. Alabama will attempt to make J.J. McCarthy win this game, and Michigan is well aware of this. On the other side, Michigan will attempt to do something Georgia couldn't do enough of:

Make Jalen Milroe uncomfortable.

The end result is two immensely talented teams and legendary coaches duking it out with a spot in the national championship on the line. And in the instance, I like Michigan to win and cover.

It's been a weird year for Jim Harbaugh. That's putting it mildly. But the Wolverines still have the nation's top scoring defense, and they are equipped to play (and win) an ugly football game.

Texas is back, Washington has arrived, and the final outcome should be a football game that looks wildly different from what Alabama-Michigan provides.

Points will be plentiful, thanks largely to quarterbacks Quinn Ewers and Michael Penix Jr. Throw in tremendous surrounding casts, and it becomes evident that neither defense will be able to slow down the opposition for 60 minutes.

The great variable in a game of this nature, however, is college football's greatest offensive architect. Giving Steve Sarkisian a month to prepare his offense should pay enormous dividends for the Longhorns.

Oddly, he feels like the ultimate X-factor. That was true when Texas dissected Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game; and it will be true again here.

The other piece working strongly in the Longhorns' favor is the offensive line. Despite suffering injuries at running back, Texas should be able to move the ball on the ground and through short passes yet again.

Ball control will be paramount. Sarkisian is plenty aware of this. And Texas is in a position to dictate the pace of the game as a result.

For Washington, it will once again be imperative for Penix to play a brilliant game. To his credit, he is capable. While offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb might not be at Sark's level just yet, he's not far behind.

Then there's wideout Rome Odunze, who Texas must slow down. That's a losing proposition in the long run—he is simply that good—but containing him even to a moderate degree might be enough to give Texas the win.

And Texas shall win. It will come after touchdowns from both teams and a great deal of action for everyone to enjoy.

What a game it will be, even when Texas wins by a touchdown.