B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 12

In a matter of weeks, the College Football Playoff will be filled and final, a Heisman will be handed out and the bowl season will be taking shape.

Let's cut to the chase; the season is moving entirely too quickly.

We've said if before and we'll say it again; savor every week while you can. When it comes to Locks of the Week, we'll savor every win regardless of circumstance. In Week 11, we won four and lost five.

We had a few blowouts on both sides, although we're not particularly fond of the final result. For the year, we're now 53-51-2. It's time to gain some separation between the wins and losses.

Before we do just that, here's what went right (and wrong) with the previous week.

The Good: UCF (+2.5) vs. Oklahoma State: This one was over in about seven minutes. Central Florida absolutely destroyed Oklahoma State, and we really didn't have to sweat this one after the first quarter.

The Bad: Wisconsin (-10) vs. Northwestern: Well, this might be the worst pick of the year. Wisconsin fell behind early, stayed behind and lost by a lot. I want to apologize to my family and friends and all of you for this one.

With that, here are the selections.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

Truth is, I live for point spreads like this. I search through the endless piles of CFB games to find games that fit this mold.

The public will line up to bet on the team that has lost just one game this season, especially when you consider it is playing a team that has lost emphatically a handful of times this year.

Indeed, head coach Mario Cristobal would probably want a mulligan on a handful of decisions he's made. Despite these issues, the Hurricanes played Florida State tough last week, and they are poised to be a tough out again.

After benching Tyler Van Dyke for freshman Emory Williams, Van Dyke ultimately reentered the game after Williams was injured. Van Dyke will get the start here, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. This feels like a perfect spot for a fitting redemption.

While Louisville deserves the utmost praise for reaching nine wins, the Cardinals have yet to win a game against the spread on the road this weekend.

Look out.

A Washington loss wouldn't be good for the bank account in many respects, as weird as that sounds when we're picking the other side. Having invested in Michael Penix Jr. to win the Heisman, a defeat would put a sizable dent in that movement.

With that said, this is a fabulous spot for Oregon State.

The Beavers are unbeaten at home. They've also lost only one game against the spread while playing in their own building. This team is balanced, has solid line play on both sides and has the pieces to push Washington's unbeaten season to the brink.

The Huskies, meanwhile, haven't looked quite right since beating Oregon. They have won every game, and they deserve the utmost credit for doing so. But this isn't the same dominant force we saw early on.

Oregon State is averaging 5.39 yards per carry; Washington is allowing 4.37 yards per carry.

Expect Oregon State to control the ball. And expect one of the darlings of the CFB season to fall.

Ames, Iowa, knows how to generate a little chaos.

We've seen it before, often without much warning. A ranked team with conference or playoff aspirations plays Iowa State on the road. From there, madness breaks out.

As Texas tries to navigate its way to the postseason, this seems like a legitimate obstacle. A night game in Ames in November will be cold, and scoring could be limited.

And while the Longhorns have the better team and overall resume, Iowa State has quietly won five of the past seven games. This team can be a force, especially at home.

On the other sideline, four of Texas' last five games have been decided by seven points or fewer. Playing on the road feels particularly slippery, which sets the stage for a fascinating football game.

As has been the case of late, Texas has managed to get by. That will happen again at Iowa State, but it will not come easy. Iowa State covers the spread and pushes for the upset.

Two months ago, both of these programs were the darlings of a very crowded Pac-12.

But now?

Washington State has lost six straight games; Colorado has lost six of the last seven games. Both teams have had moments against better teams. Both teams have also fallen flat in other spots.

As the Buffaloes hit the road, one can't help but wonder how much they have left in the tank. The emotion surrounding the start of the year and the subsequent fall has clearly had an impact on this team.

Playing on the road in a late-night matchup just feels like a troubling spot for the road team. Throw in the potential from QB Cameron Ward, who threw for more than 350 yards last week, and Washington State could finally be able to end the losing streak.

Oh, and cover the spread.

Yes, Virginia has only two wins.

The record is what it is, and there's no denying the final outcomes. But over the past six weeks, even during the losses, this team has looked considerably improved.

The Cavaliers nearly upset Louisville at Louisville last week. In fact, they should have won the game. Freshman QB Anthony Colandrea played well in that game and of late. In fact, he's become a catalyst for the team's improvement.

He's also likely to be a matchup issue for a team that has struggled to score with quarterback Riley Leonard sidelined. Granted, the Blue Devils deserve a great deal of praise for pushing UNC to overtime on Saturday.

That was a great performance. It was also a draining outcome. A road trip to Virginia, which is clearly getting plenty of respect from the oddsmakers, is less than ideal.

Virginia covers the spread and wins outright.

Tennessee (+10.5) vs. Georgia

This was a late addition to the picks. Otherwise we would have written more words. The selection could be summed up easier this way: Home field is a tremendous advantage in college football. Vols keep it close enough.

Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Boston College

This football game is likely to be gross, but Pitt is also a much better team at home. Just ask Louisville. The Panthers win (and cover). Also, watch something else.

Air Force (-3) vs. UNLV

Air Force has been bad of late, and UNLV has been exceptional. The fact that the Falcons are still locked in as the chalk is certainly intriguing. Here's to Air Force finding itself once more.

Wyoming (-13.5) vs. Hawai'i

On the topic of streaky teams, enter Wyoming. The Cowboys have largely helped us this year, and they will once again. A long, cold road trip won't do Hawai'i well.

FAU (+9.5) vs. Tulane

Every single game Tulane plays seems to come down to one score. Despite that, it's shocking to see this one in the single digits given the way FAU has played. Contrarian play, ahoy.