B/R NBA Staff: Bold Victor Wembanyama Rookie Predictions That Could Actually Happen
As we approach the 2023-24 NBA season, the hype train carrying Victor Wembanyama into the league does not appear to be slowing down.
After ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski touted Wembanyama as perhaps "the greatest prospect in the history of team sports" ahead of the draft, he's a heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year. You can decide how much stock to put in this, but he's also the highest-rated rookie in the history of NBA 2K.
Now, with less than two months before Wembanyama reports to his first San Antonio Spurs training camp, Bleacher Report's NBA staff is here to channel all that hype into specific predictions.
What kind of numbers will he put up? What accolades are on the immediate horizon? Scroll below to find out.
At first glance, Victor Wembanyama jumps out as an exceptional prospect—also at second, third and fourth. He's not just hype. He's very much the real deal.
But that brilliance will take some time to unlock as Wembanyama starts his career with the San Antonio Spurs.
His stat line will be impressive right away. Penciling in a double-double with two blocks a game is a lot for a rookie, but his talent as a scorer will take some time to unlock.
Wembanyama has the tools to reach Nikola Jokić/Joel Embiid levels, but he has a long way to go to learn the NBA game. He has inherent physical advantages at his height, combined with his skill, that will lead to an incredible career—but 15 points per game as a rookie may be more realistic.
Jokić averaged 10.0 points in 21.7 minutes per game as a rookie, but even the Denver Nuggets didn't quite know what they had in him yet. Embiid scored 20.2 per game in his first season (2016-17), but that was two years after the Philadelphia 76ers drafted him. Even LeBron James averaged a career-low 20.9 points per game during his debut season in 2003-24.
All of that is to say, give Wembanyama some grace as he finds himself in San Antonio. He has a historic head coach in Gregg Popovich, who will ensure Wembanyama is set up for a long, productive and spectacular career.
—Eric Pincus
Only 14 total players in NBA history have recorded a 5x5 game—at least five points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in the same contest. We've never seen a 6x5 game (adding in made three-pointers).
At least, not until Wembanyama gives us one this season.
The closest any player has ever gotten was Nicolas Batum on Dec. 16, 2012, with the Portland Trail Blazers. He posted a line of 11 points, 10 assists, five rebounds, five steals, five blocks and three made three-pointers against the New Orleans Hornets.
It should only take a few minutes for Wembanyama to cross the threshold in points and rebounds, and the No. 1 overall pick averaged 3.0 blocks and 2.4 assists per game for the Metropolitans 92 last season.
Getting to five steals won't be easy, although Wembanyama's massive 8-foot wingspan should be able to break up a lot of passing lanes or poke balls away from unsuspecting opponents.
What should ultimately get Wembanyama to the record is his unique ability to shoot from the outside for someone his size. We've already witnessed Wembanyama get hot from deep on American soil when he went 7-of-11 from three in a game against Scoot Henderson and the G League Ignite on Oct. 4, 2022. He should have the green light on a young San Antonio Spurs team in need of an alpha scorer.
We've never seen a prospect quite like Wembanyama before. It would only make sense for him to deliver a stat line never before witnessed in NBA history.
Taking the field over an individual can be hard to sell as a bold take, but Wembanyama's current odds to secure Rookie of the Year are minus-115. There's a chasm between that number and the second-shortest odds (Chet Holmgren and Scoot Henderson are both plus-380).
But there were at least some hints at the NBA's Las Vegas Summer League that Wembanyama could be in for a slightly longer adjustment period than some are anticipating.
For one thing, opponents seemed to have little trouble knocking Wembanyama's long and slender frame off his desired paths whether he was on offense or defense. His jumper looks like it may need some seasoning, too. While the Spurs' coaching staff may not give him the same kind of freedom that he had in summer league, his naturally high dribble could make his drives easy pickings for smaller guards.
None of that is to say Wembanyama won't eventually be a star. His potential is undeniable, and his length alone could make him a defensive force right out of the gate.
But Rookie of the Year (like Sixth Man of the Year) is heavily dependent on points per game. And a few players—namely Henderson, assuming the Portland Trail Blazers eventually trade Damian Lillard—could have a more direct route to scoring volume.
We almost never see rookies in the All-Star Game. Since 2000, only two have made the cut: Yao Ming in 2003 and Blake Griffin in 2011.
But you know what's an even rarer sight in this league? A 7'5" big man with guard skills, paint protection and everything in between.
Victor Wembanyama is a 1-of-1, transcendent talent. With his absurd length—Stretch Armstrong has nothing on Wemby's sweeping 8'0" wingspan—agility, timing and feel, he might be a top-10 defense on his own. If even some of his shot-making skills surface in his rookie season, he could conceivably swish, slash and slam his way to a scoring average north of 20 points per game.
He has game-breaking potential, and since he's played pro ball already, he'll arrive with more polish than most first-timers bring to the NBA. Since the Spurs should have no hesitation giving him all the opportunities he can handle, he'll have the floor time and touches needed to put up preposterous numbers.
Tack on the spotlight of being the most celebrated prospect since LeBron James, and exposure won't be an issue for Wembanyama. All-Star voters—whether they're fans, media members of Wemby's new peers—will be affixed to his every move.
If he starts stretching toward his towering ceiling early in the season, those voters will be blown away.
