Braves vs Giants Odds, Predictions, Picks
Friday’s MLB schedule includes a potential playoff preview between the Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants. While the Braves have all but secured a spot in the postseason, the Giants will have to fight tooth and nail for the rest of the season to get there, making Friday's game far more important from San Francisco’s perspective. These teams met last weekend in Atlanta with the Braves winning two out of the three games, so the Giants will be looking to return the favor at home this weekend.
San Francisco is returning home on Friday after a thrilling 8-6 win over the Phillies on Wednesday. The Giants need to use that win as a springboard to a hot streak. They’ve gone just 5-12 over their last 17 games. That stretch has cost them any chance of catching the Dodgers in the NL West while also dropping them in the Wild Card standings. As it stands, there is almost nothing to separate the Giants, Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Reds for the final two Wild Card spots, giving San Francisco little margin for error.
On the other hand, the Braves have tons of margin for error. They hold a 13.5-game lead in the NL East and remain a few games ahead of the Dodgers for the best record in the National League. Winning the division is a foregone conclusion by now, but Atlanta would like to stay ahead of the Dodgers in order to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That is their main motivation right now, and it’s been enough to fuel a 12-4 record in their last 16 games.
With the Braves on a hot streak and San Francisco struggling to get going, it’s no surprise that the Braves are road favorites on Friday. DraftKings lists Atlanta’s moneyline at -162 with San Francisco’s moneyline listed at +136. The game also has an over/under of 7.5 runs.
Atlanta Braves Predictions
It’s a little easier to view the Braves as favorites on Friday with Spencer Strider set to get the start. He’s been a strikeout machine this season, leading the majors in that category, averaging 1.6 strikeouts per inning. His 14-4 record also ranks among the best pitchers in the majors, although his 3.57 ERA is a little higher than expected. That being said, Strider has been dominant in his last two starts. He’s thrown seven scoreless innings against both the Giants and Mets in his last two starts. Against the Giants last Saturday, Strider allowed just one hit and one walk over seven innings, striking out 10. He's pitching as well as anybody in baseball right now, helping the Braves go 12-3 in the last 15 games he's started.
Strider also has the benefit of receiving plenty of run support in most of his starts. In their 22 games during the month of August, the Braves have failed to score at least four runs just three times. Oddly enough, two of those games have come in Atlanta’s last four games. Nevertheless, Atlanta’s lineup remains among the most dangerous in baseball, even with Ozzie Albies on the IL. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson are both MVP candidates, ranking fourth and fifth, respectively, in OPS among all big leaguers right now. Further down the lineup, Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario might be the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Over his last six games, Ozuna is batting .522 with four home runs. Meanwhile, in Rosario’s last four games, he’s hitting .643 with an OPS of 1.810.
San Francisco Giants Predictions
Logan Webb will undoubtedly have his hands full when he takes the mound for the Giants on Friday. Webb got knocked around by the Braves when he faced them last Saturday, allowing four runs on nine hits over six innings. To his credit, Webb has been otherwise excellent this year, going 9-9 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Webb owns a 2.63 ERA across his four starts in August and has allowed two runs or less in six of his last nine starts. Unfortunately, the Giants are just 5-4 in those nine games, although Webb has held up his end of the bargain more times than not.
Of course, against the Braves, Webb is going to need some run support from San Francisco’s bats. With eight runs in Wednesday’s win, the Giants are perhaps moving in the right direction offensively. Since being shut out by Atlanta last Friday, the Giants have averaged 4.8 runs per game. Wilmer Flores, Joc Pederson, and Thairo Estrada, specifically, have all started to heat up over the past week. The caveat is that Flores leads the team with 18 home runs this season. In comparison, the Braves have seven players who have already hit 20 homers this year, meaning the Giants don’t come close to matching the power in the Atlanta lineup.
Braves vs Giants - Over/Under Analysis
A matchup between Strider and Webb explains why the over/under for this game is just 7.5 runs. But that number is far too low given the offensive talent in this game. The Braves are always a good candidate to put a crooked number on the scoreboard, especially after getting the best of Webb last weekend. Strider, meanwhile, is prone to poor outings despite being lights-out in his last two starts. Plus, the Giants have shown some signs of life offensively in recent days, so they should fare better against Strider on Friday. To be fair, the Giants hit the over just 38% of the time in their home games. But with little margin for error, there is value taking the over in this game.
