Braves vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Red Sox rotation is decimated, leading to a bullpen game in a spot where it's far from ideal. See why our MLB picks are backing the Braves to beat the BoSox around tonight.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox begin a two-game interleague set at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. The Braves have the best record in the majors and are the World Series favorites while the Red Sox are tied for last place in the AL East despite being six games above .500.
MLB betting lines didn't hit the board till the afternoon due to the uncertainty surrounding Boston's starter, but Atlanta eventually opened as a -140 road favorite. Here are my best free Braves vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for July 25.
Braves vs Red Sox odds
Braves vs Red Sox predictions
Boston's rotation has been decimated by injuries to Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock. That problem was exacerbated by Brayan Bello going on paternity leave to the Dominican Republic on the weekend and he isn't set to start till tomorrow, making this a bullpen game for the Red Sox.
Boston's bullpen has been solid this season but expecting them to navigate nine innings against this lethal Braves lineup will be a tough task. The Braves are the best hitting team in the majors, boasting an MLB-best wOBA of .353 and also ranking first in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
The Red Sox are sixth in wOBA (.333) but their analytics are far less impressive, sitting in the bottom half of the majors in barrel rate (22nd), average exit velocity (17th), and hard hit rate (19th). While Braves starter Charlie Morton has been inconsistent this season, he's still a reliable veteran with a 3.36 ERA across 17 starts. The Braves also have a solid group of relievers behind him with their bullpen first in the majors in WHIP (1.19) and second in ERA (3.50).
With the Braves going 35-12 on the road this season, grab them on a relatively short line against a Boston team struggling to field competent arms.
My best bet: Braves moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)
Braves vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Oddsmakers were slow to put up this line while waiting for more information on who Boston would be starting. With this contest looking like a bullpen game for the BoSox, odds finally tricked in just before 1:00 p.m. ET with the Braves at -140. Expect that number to quick grow.
The Over opened at a whopping 10 and is juiced toward the Over at -120. That big number makes plenty of sense when you consider that Boston will be having a bullpen game while both teams have been productive at the plate. The Braves plate 5.61 runs per game while the Red Sox average 5.63 runs/game at home.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 40 games (+13.95 Units). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox.
Braves vs Red Sox game info
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (10-7, 3.36 ERA): Morton began this month with three excellent starts allowing just 11 hits and a single run across 19 innings against the Marlins, Rays, and White Sox. However, he struggled in his previous outing, giving up four runs before getting the hook midway through the sixth inning last Wednesday against the Diamondbacks.
Bullpen game: Boston's relievers have pitched to a 3.78 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP this season and the bullpen currently has a 5:5 split between southpaws and righthanders.
The biggest contributors out of the bullpen have been righties Nick Pivetta and Josh Winckowski. Pivetta has logged 76 innings this season and pitched an inning on Saturday night after fanning 13 batters in six innings against the A's last Monday. Winckowski has a 2.93 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP through 55 1/3 innings.
