Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: the case for handicapping early

On a macro level, I have no problem with handicapping early.

Breeders' Cup prep in September? Let's go. Kentucky Derby chatter in January? You betcha.

But this year, even the most strident "what's the point of handicapping when you don't know post positions, weather, jockey assignments, and Scott Shapiro's picks" people have a reason to put at least a little more effort into understanding this year's Breeders' Cup Classic: for the first time in forever (name the movie), the richest race in North America will be a part of more than one of each type of multi-race wager.

The Classic has always anchored the world championships and thus been a part of just one all-Breeders' Cup double, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5. That changes this year, as it will not be the final Breeders' Cup race of the day. With its earlier position, it will be a part of a pair of doubles, a trio of Pick 3s and presumably at least two Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers.

And the good news about all that is that the race typically brings some value to these multi-race wagers. The last 17 editions of the Breeders' Cup Classic (2006-2022) had 13 doubles, 16 Pick 3s and 16 Pick 4s all pay more than the parlay.

In general, the double has not been a great bet on Breeders' Cup races, so while 13/17 isn't great, it is typical. The other wrinkle is that in two of those four years there was a fan favorite horse who likely took more win than double money: Zenyatta in 2010 and California Chrome in 2016. That flattened the relative double payouts when Blame and Arrogate won. So that's another lesson from all this: Arcangelo and Ushba Tesoro are likely to be shorter in the win than double pools.

Anyway, only one Pick 3 and one Pick 4 paying less than the parlay is solid. This year we'll get two doubles, three Pick 3 sequences, and likely at least two Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers through the Classic.

So what's it all mean for this year's Classic? White Abarrio becomes an extremely intriguing proposition. I cannot see him being any lower than fourth choice in any pool, and that ordinal ranking odds wise with my thought that he's the race's most likely winner means I have to find a way to extract maximum value from the multi-race overlays if I have actionable opinions in the races surrounding the Classic.

Because of the race order this year there will be more sequences and I will have more opportunities to find that multi-race value.