Brendan Rodgers' Celtic return: Manager has it all to prove in second spell

Whether Celtic folk see it as the return of the prodigal son or the reappointment of the shameless one, Brendan Rodgers is on his way back.

His dream job, remember. "A way of life…the ultimate…a truly great football club…one of the iconic clubs of the world…the greatest in the world."

Rodgers will bring nous and charisma. It will not be dull, not for one millisecond.

When he speaks later in the week it's hard to know if he'll have the trowel he used to lay on the shtick in his first spell and, if he does, what impact those words will have on the support this time around.

"I was born into Celtic" might not work so well a second time after the bitterness and rancour he left behind when upping and leaving for Leicester in the spring of 2019.

Much of the reaction to his exit among Celtic fans back then was weary disappointment but among the extreme minorities there was also horrible anger.

In the days and weeks after he departed it was impossible to envisage a comeback, not even to watch a game not to mind to manage the club again, which would have seemed like an outlandish concept.

But here we are with Rodgers restored. Fans who slammed him are now contorting themselves. The language has been tempered. Old grievances have been parked, for now. Frankly, even Lazarus would be gobsmacked with the way this has played out.

Celtic's logic in bringing him back is obvious. He's the closest thing they can get to a surefire winner, so expedience rules.

With Rodgers, as opposed to anybody else who has been linked with the job, there is a higher chance of success. And success tends to soothe all ills, even the ire of the angriest Rodgers critic will be doused if his team continues the work of Ange Postecoglou and tears it up.

Domestic landscape 'more challenging'

Some of the stuff that Celtic played under Rodgers was exceptional. He won all the trophies, dominated the landscape, lorded it over proceedings like a king on his throne.

But, if he's coming back, context needs to be applied to what he did before and what he's going to have to improve on now.

The fact is that Rodgers inherited a champion team and existed in deeply favourable times. Rangers were a shambles, lurching from Mark Warburton to Pedro Caixinha to Graeme Murty and then Steven Gerrard. In Rodgers' two full seasons at Celtic Park, Aberdeen finished second.

What we remember primarily from Rodgers at Celtic is the 'invincible' season of 2016-17, a campaign of genuine class.

We don't necessarily recall with the same kind of clarity the following campaign which saw Celtic win the title with 82 points which, outside of the Covid-curtailed season of 2019-20, is the second-lowest winning total in almost a quarter of a century. Celtic dropped points in 14 league games that season.

In his final season, Rodgers lost league games to Hearts, Kilmarnock, Hibs and Rangers and dropped more points against St Mirren, Livingston and Motherwell. They had a points-per-game return of 2.3 which was putting him on course for a title-winning total of 87 had he stayed (Neil Lennon took over and Celtic did, indeed, finish on 87 points). That's the joint-sixth lowest title-winning total since the turn of the millennium.

Postecoglou's numbers routed those of Rodgers in those two seasons. Indeed, Rangers' total in finishing second in 2021-22 and 2022-23 was higher than in two of Rodgers' two and three-quarter seasons.

Postecoglou took over a mess, rebuilt an entire team and won his titles with 93 points and 99 points. And he did it with a much stronger closest rival than Rodgers ever had. Postecoglou will be a hard act to follow.

Rodgers will find the domestic landscape more challenging than before. He's a terrific manager and you'd expect him to add considerably to Celtic's trophy haul, but it won't be so easy this time.

Celtic fans knock great fun out of mocking their city rivals but Rangers are way stronger now than they ever were during Rodgers' first stint.

Work to do in Europe

What's in it for Rodgers? Coming back to Glasgow to win trophies he's already won multiple times has the look of an aging rocker on a revival tour.

The league is the non-negotiable but for him, it's not just about domestic football. It never was.

He sees himself as someone who can make a mark on Europe, given a decent budget. That's part of the reason why he felt he could do no more at Celtic the last time.

He wouldn't contemplate coming back unless he felt his odds of doing something in the Champions League or Europa League were reasonable.

The fact that Celtic are guaranteed group stage football in the Champions League would not have been enough of a draw for Rodgers unless there was enough backing to make something happen in Europe. He's been a Champions League whipping boy before and it wasn't fun.

A promise of more cash to spend on a tilt at Europe must have been made to him or else it's hard to see why he would come back. What that number looks like is something we'll only get an angle on when he see the ambition of his signings.

Rodgers' record in group stage and subsequent knockout European games is poor. Three wins from eight with Liverpool in 2012-13, two from eight in 2014-15 and zero from two in 2015-16.

He won five from 22 with Celtic and 10 from 22 with Leicester, albeit he made the semi-final of the Conference League in 2021-22, a competition he said he hadn't heard of until he was about to compete in it.

An overall record of 20 wins from 62 group and knockout games is a significant blot on the record of a manager who has achieved many excellent things in his career. The memory of some of the hidings he suffered at Celtic against the European elite - and not so elite - will not have faded.

One compelling question, among many, is whether he can do anything about it. The 'dream job' stuff, the rhetoric about 'walking across broken glass to get to Celtic Park' has had its time. He might find a more demanding and less forgiving public now. Talk, as every Celtic fan now knows, is cheap. For a manager who has done a lot, he has it all to prove.