Brewers-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, July 28

Two of the NL’s three division leaders collide as the powerhouse Atlanta Braves (64-36) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (57-46) to town for a three-game weekend set. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.86 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while Atlanta will start the recently acquired Yonny Chirinos (4-4, 4.02).

Milwaukee just dropped two of three at home to Atlanta last week, but other than that it’s been a very strong start to the stretch run. The Brewers have continued their dominance over the division rival Reds, taking five of six over Cincy over the last two weeks to run their NL Central lead to up to two games in the loss column. They’ll wrap up their road trip early next week with three against the Washington Nationals in D.C.

The Braves still boast MLB’s best record, but it’s been a rocky start to the second half, as they’ve lost three of their last 10 games. They still have a stranglehold on the NL East, but it’ll be interesting to see how Atlanta addresses its pitching depth at the trade deadline. Next up after this weekend is another home set against the Los Angeles Angels.

Atlanta enters as -175 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Brewers at +150. The run total is set at 10.

Brewers-Braves picks: Friday, July 28

Injury report

Brewers

Day to day: RP Justin Wilson (elbow)
Out: DH Jesse Winker (back), SP Wade Miley (elbow), 3B/OF Brian Anderson (back), 1B Rowdy Tellez (forearm), SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder), 1B Darin Ruf (knee)

Braves

Out: RP A.J. Minter (shoulder), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), SP Max Fried (forearm), SP/RP Kolby Allard (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Adrian Houser vs. Yonny Chirinos

Houser just faced these same Braves in his last outing, and it might’ve been the most surprising start all season — the sinkerballer with a minuscule 4th-percentile whiff rate struck out a whopping 10 batters, holding Atlanta to three runs over six innings of work. Ordinarily, strikeouts aren’t the righty’s game, as he throws his sinker nearly 50% of the time and looks to get lots of ground-ball outs.

Speaking of sinkers: Chirinos throws his nearly 50% of the time as well, also pitching to contact and looking to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Atlanta picked the righty up off waivers from the Tampa Bay Rays last weekend as they search for starting pitching depth with Fried, Allard and Kyle Wright all sidelined. He last started for Tampa just after the All-Star break, giving up three runs in 4.2 innings against the Kansas City Royals.

Over/Under pick

The Braves’ offense has been weirdly quiet of late — Atlanta ranks just 14th in team OPS since the All-Star break, which is shocking given how they’d crushed the ball for the entire first half. I’m not banking on that trend continuing, though: This is still arguably the deepest lineup in the Majors, and given a second crack at Houser in as many weeks, I’m betting they fare much better this time around. Given Chirinos’ shakiness on the other side — he has a 6.66 ERA over his last six appearances — I’m backing the over despite the high number.

Pick: Over 10

Moneyline pick

On the one hand, Chirinos really does not inspire confidence, and the Brewers clearly aren’t afraid of big, bad Atlanta. On the other hand, the Braves are now back home and in need of a win to turn the vibes around. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Co. simply can’t be held down for too long, and I expect a breakout performance on Friday night.