Bruins vs. Maple Leafs picks and odds: Bet Toronto to win high-scoring game
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Boston Bruins in each team’s final game before the all-star break.
The pregame narrative: Boston’s not playing the strongest defensive hockey as of late, making the over a good call. Toronto’s the hotter team ahead of this game should be viewed as a strong underdog play at home.
Odds as of 7:48 a.m. on 02/01/2023.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs picks
Best Bet: Over 6 goals (+100)
We’re taking the even-money odds and betting this game goes over the total.
A big reason for this falls on the play of the goaltending for both teams. Boston ranks an uncharacteristically low 15th in team save percentage (.898) over the last week, according to Natural Stat Trick. Toronto’s actually a slightly worse 19th (.897) in the category over this time.
There’s also the matchup between a surprisingly leaky Bruins defence and a potent Toronto offence.
Boston’s allowing the 11th-most expected goals per 60 (3.63) over the last seven days. Toronto, meanwhile, places eighth in expected goals per 60 (3.74) during this stretch.
Auston Matthews’ absence isn’t a huge concern for us as the Maple Leafs are coming off a five-goal performance against the Washington Capitals on Sunday.
Even with the Bruins going through a minor slump offensively, it seems reactionary to expect them to not score their fair share, too.
Key stat: The over on this total hit in the most recent outing between Toronto and Boston on Jan. 14.
Quick picks
Maple Leafs moneyline (+100): Looking at another even-money wager, we’re taking the value on Toronto to win this game outright.
The Maple Leafs own a much better expected goals percentage (60.08 to 45.31) than the Bruins over the last seven days and have won five of their last six contests at Scotiabank Arena.
Boston, on the other hand, has lost three consecutive road games.
Bruins under 0.5 power-play goals (+130): Lastly, we’re looking to follow a trend with some nice plus-money odds.
Boston hasn’t potted a power-play goal in each of its last three outings, and it really struggled to generate quality looks in its most recent game against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Toronto has only allowed a power-play marker in two of the team’s last five contests.
