Bruins vs Stars Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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04 March 2023

Bruins vs Stars Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

What will the Bruins and Stars get when they mix stingy penalty kills, elite goalkeeping, and a tense, playoff-like atmosphere? Our NHL picks think they'll see goals being earned in this contest — and not many of them.

The two conference leaders will meet in Texas tonight as the Boston Bruins visit the Dallas Stars as slight -120 favorites. These are the No.1 and No.2 teams in goal differential and bettors could be seeing a very tight game with two Vezina-caliber goalies.

With a low-scoring game projected, is the optimal way to approach this game to comb through the player prop markets and find the best Under play?

Find out my best bet in my NHL picks for Bruins vs. Stars on Tuesday, February 14.

Bruins vs Stars best odds

Bruins vs Stars picks and predictions

Taylor Hall has collected just six points over his last 16 games since January 1. He’s been bounced around in the lineup and now finds himself on the second line with David Krejci and Pavel Zacha, as Jim Montgomery has loaded the top line.

Since the Christmas break, he’s failed to record a single point in 13 of his 19 games. The struggles have been even bigger on the road where the former MVP is scoring 0.48 points per game compared to 0.78 per game at home.

Now Hall will face the fourth-best 5-on-5 defensive team, the league’s No.3 penalty kill, and a goalie who will get Vezina votes by season’s end. It’s a tough matchup for the entire Boston offense and with all the scoring talent on the top line, Hall will struggle to contribute with Zacha and Krejci as his linemates.

I have Hall’s Under 0.5 points at about a 65% probability but am getting a -138 price at FanDuel which is a 58% probability. Boston to score three goals is a tough task vs. Dallas and with Hall’s lack of contributions recently and on the road, another donut on the scoresheet is likely.

My best bet: Taylor Hall Under 0.5 points (-138)

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Bruins vs Stars moneyline analysis

The Stars have come out of the All-Star break with a 2-1 record, with that loss coming in Tampa Bay on Saturday with backup Scott Wedgewood in net. Now they’ll take on the No.1 Bruins who have played just once over the last two weeks — a 2-1 loss to Washington on Saturday.

The schedule spot favors the Stars, who the books are indicating would be around a +120 underdog if this game were on neutral ice. I wouldn’t be surprised if oddsmakers gave the Stars five points for the schedule since the Bruins have been pretty idle over the last 14 days.

Despite that, it’s not easy to find any edges in close games like these with two elite teams.

We’re going to see high-end goaltending with Vezina betting favorite Linus Ullmark likely facing Jake Oettinger who's starting to move up the Vezina-favorite ranks.

Both special teams are some of the best in hockey. Each team owns a Top-5 penalty kill and a Top-10 power play. And even with Boston being one of the best 5-on-5 teams ever with a plus-53 goal differential across 52 games, Dallas is tied for fourth with Carolina in the same category.

There is no edge in injuries, as both teams come in quite healthy with the only key absence being Boston winger Jake DeBrusk, who has been out since early January.

Looking at splits, we know Boston is unstoppable at home but is also 17-6 SU with a plus-1.32 goal differential per game on the road. On the season, Dallas is 15-6-6 at home, which is decent from a point-percentage standpoint, but that’s just a 15-12 SU record on home ice. That’s a little edge to the Bruins.

Ultimately, deciding factors are usually in the pricing in these tight games, especially with no key injuries and elite special teams.

Boston opened at -120 and has seen a little movement to -125 at some books. They were -130 road favorites vs. Toronto before the break, which leads me to believe that this line could get to -130 and I think that’s the right movement. Dallas closed as +100 home dogs to Tampa on Saturday, proving that this line is projected to move to -130.

Getting 10 points ahead of a projected closing line is +EV, but it still isn’t enough, for me, to make this a play. The low total (5.5) is projecting a tight game and the tie at +300 is in play here and is something I’d prefer over either side. This is looking like a 2-2 game to me.

Bruins vs Stars Over/Under analysis

I don’t usually back 5.5 Unders, as I know that hockey is a game of bounces, but with tonight’s goaltending plus two of the best penalty kills in hockey, open ice will be at a premium.

Ullmark is -200 to win the Vezina, and although I think there’s a chance he doesn't win thanks to a lower workload, it’s tough to argue against the Boston netminder being the best goalie in hockey. He’s played 33 games and has just four losses in regulation.

Oettinger can push Ullmark down the stretch as he's getting a heavier workload but since the Christmas break, Oettinger and Ullmark have identical .937 save percentages which are tied for the No.2 mark in the league over that stretch. Goals will be earned tonight.

The Bruins have the No.1 PK but the Stars rank right behind them in third, so power-play goals will also be hard to come by. Even 5-on-5 scoring will be tight as both teams sit in the Top 5 in goals against at even strength.

With the Under 5.5 at plus money, I’d fully expect the Under to shorten up. As I said, I don’t usually play Under 5.5s, but this one checks nearly every box for a lower-scoring game.