Bucks vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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31 January 2024

Bucks vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Anfernee Simons has taken the mantle of Trail Blazers lead guard with aplomb as Damian Lillard has established his new place with the Bucks. With Dame returning to Portland for the first time since the trade, who has the edge?

It’s a homecoming game for Milwaukee Bucks star Damian Lillard, as he makes his bittersweet return to the Moda Center for the first time since he was traded from the Portland Trail Blazers. His Bucks are in turmoil, with the team starting over from square one in the aftermath of Adrian Griffin’s firing.

The Blazers have been playing pretty well of late and Dame’s former teammates will be keen to put on a good show against their former leader. NBA odds, however, are favoring the visitors.

My NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Trail Blazers on Wednesday, January 31 believe circumstances are right for Anfernee Simons to have a standout game against his former teammate.

Bucks vs Trail Blazers odds

Bucks vs Trail Blazers predictions

In the end, there can only be one. That’s the tagline from the movie Highlander and a general guiding principle when constructing modern NBA backcourts with small guards.

Damian Lillard’s days were numbered with the Portland Trail Blazers as Anfernee Simons continued his steady ascent to borderline stardom, and they were sealed completely when they took Scoot Henderson third overall. As the Blazers learned through years of the Dame and CJ McCollum backcourt, it’s too difficult to play respectable defense with two liabilities at guard.

Ironically, it’s a difficulty that Lillard’s new team is diving headfirst into as well. Now as Dame makes his return as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, I’m backing a play on the student, not the master.

Simons is having an under-the-radar but outstanding season. He’s upped his usage to legitimate number-one option levels while maintaining his overall efficiency. He’s shooting 39% from downtown and, more importantly, he’s up to 41% on above-the-break threes, which are the essential shot for on-ball scoring stars.

For such a prolific scorer, the Anfernee Simons odds for this game are low, which is because he's coming off of a couple of rough outings, at least on the face of it.

He’s scored just 26 points combined over his last two games. But that’s a bit deceiving. Simons played just 28 minutes last game and only took 12 shots because the Blazers gave the injury-riddled Philadelphia 76ers such a beat down that he didn’t need to put his imprint on the game.

The game before, Simons was in early foul trouble, finishing with five fouls while being hounded by Alex Caruso. So, in both instances, there have been mitigating circumstances.

Simons' numbers are also way down in January after being scorching in December. He’s averaging 8.5 fewer points this month than last, on worse efficiency from just about everywhere. But there’s again an easy explanation. The Blazers have been on a pair of hellacious road trips for almost all of January, with 10 of their 14 games coming on the road, with multiple sets of back-to-backs mixed in as well.

Tonight, he’s at home, rested, and facing one of the NBA’s worst defensive backcourts. If that wasn’t enough, he’ll be motivated to outplay his former teammate and prove that the student has become the master.

Simons is well set up for a bounce-back performance, making the Over 22.5 points my favorite bet on the board.

My best bet: Anfernee Simons Over 22.5 points (-125 at BetMGM)

Bucks vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay

Anfernee Simons Over 22.5 pointsDamian Lillard Over 2.5 made threes

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 6.5 assists

Lillard has not shot the ball well in January but the sheer volume of 3-pointers he’s taking makes this a solid value. Lillard is taking 8.1 threes per game this month and has had double-digit attempts in three of his last six games. With a shooter as good as Lillard — and with guard defense as limited as the Blazers — counting on him to make three at this price is good value.

It helps that Dame will be in a familiar and comfortable environment and that his teammates will want to set him up for success for the long-term good of team morale.

If Lillard is going to take a lot of threes, it stands to reason that Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be facilitating. While I don’t think Doc Rivers is going to radically change the Bucks offense right away, he was openly talking about how he felt the Bucks didn’t run enough pick-and-roll featuring Giannis and Dame when he was a media member before taking over as Milwaukee’s head coach.

That means more playmaking from Giannis and more shooting from Dame, as that’s their most natural synergy. With Giannis averaging 7.8 assists over his last 10 games, I like his chances of going Over here as well.

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Bucks vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as high as -10.5-point favorites for Wednesday’s clash, but that’s dropped to a -9.5 edge at just about every sportsbook.

The Blazers are one of the NBA’s worst teams this season, but at full strength, they’re closer to respectable than the rest of the NBA’s bottom-feeders. They have a roster full of real NBA players that can field units that can defend, pass, and shoot. With Simons acting as their on-ball maestro, his ability as a pull-up threat in the Lillard mold can genuinely bend good defenses.

The Bucks might be heavy favorites, but they’re not going to just waltz into a double-digit victory either. The Blazers have recent wins over the Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers, and narrow losses to quality teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder. This team isn’t playoff (or even play-in) bound but they also won’t just lay down and die.

The Bucks are just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 outings as well as just 7-11 ATS as road favorites this season.

Portland, meanwhile, has outperformed the spread by an average of 6.4 points over their last eight games. It’s tough to have too much faith in the Blazers when this game is so significant for Lillard and the Bucks, and their offense is good enough to beat this spread within a single quarter.

Wednesday’s total opened between 236 and 236.5.

Just shy of 60% of all Bucks games have gone Over this season, and that trend is likely to hold, at least in the short term. While Milwaukee played noticeably harder on defense during Doc’s first game at the helm against the Denver Nuggets, it’s easy to muster the energy to go hard for 48 minutes against the defending champs.

I’m less convinced the Bucks will bring that same effort against a 14-33 Blazers team who they probably think they can beat if they just lock in for 10 minutes at some point.

The Blazers also have the goods to hit the Milwaukee defense where it hurts. Athletic guards who run the floor and players who bomb threes are a recipe for a high-scoring game. I’d lean Over at this number, but I don’t feel strongly enough to make it one of my best bets.