Bucks vs. Warriors prediction: NBA odds, picks, bets for Wednesday

Milwaukee will put its six-game winning streak on the line when it visits the Warriors on Wednesday night. 

However, the Bucks could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo for a second straight game after the eight-time All-Star experienced soreness in his left Achilles while warming up against the Clippers on Monday.  

Considering the injury first surfaced a few weeks ago, Milwaukee might not want to rush Antetokounmpo back too soon. 

His potential absence could explain why Golden State is as high as a 4.5-point favorite after opening at -2.

The Warriors will certainly try to put things right following their embarrassing 140-88 loss against the Celtics, which snapped their three-game winning streak.

And with the Warriors having two days of rest to lick their wounds, a fast start in the first half could be in the cards.

Many different factors can contribute to a team’s winning streak. The team could have experienced a surge in offense, faced weaker opponents, or was simply fortunate to win some close games.

However, I tend to focus more on how the team is playing defensively because of the effort and commitment it requires. 

I’m also a firm believer that good defense is the most sustainable component of a winning team because you’re bound to have an off-shooting night every now and then.

In the Bucks’ case, their winning streak has largely been spurred by their defense. Over their last six games, they kept their opponents under 100 points on four occasions. 

Per NBA.com, the Bucks’ 102.6 defensive rating is the second-best mark in the league during that stretch. 

Although two of its victories came against the lowly Hornets, Milwaukee did post wins against the Timberwolves, 76ers, Bulls and Clippers—four current postseason contenders.

Perhaps the most impressive victory was over the Clippers. After trailing by 15 points in the third quarter, Milwaukee used a 40-point fourth quarter to regain the lead and put the game to bed.

But while the Bucks were likely spurred to victory by their home crowd, they could find things a bit different on the road against a boisterous Warriors fanbase.

I was as surprised as anyone by Golden State’s 52-point road loss to the Celtics. The Warriors were never quite at the races, trailing by 22 points after the first quarter. 

Everything pretty much snowballed from there, with the Warriors getting outscored by 31 points over the next two quarters.

The loss was a disappointing finish to a Warriors road trip after a 3-0 start. 

Golden State’s small forward Andrew Wiggins was away from the team for all four games as he dealt with a personal matter. Wiggins is now back with the team as the Warriors begin a three-game homestand. 

Golden State has been much better in non-conference games, evidenced by a 16-7 mark compared to 16-21 against the West. 

However, the Warriors still need to find a secondary scorer who can fill the void when Stephen Curry isn’t at his best. 

Klay Thompson is Golden State’s second-leading scorer (16.9 PPG), but his offensive struggles resulted in a demotion from the starting lineup in favor of Brandin Podziemski.

Podziemski (knee) didn’t feature against the Celtics, as Thompson got the start. 

The good news for the Warriors is that Podziemski and Wiggins will rejoin the team when they host the Bucks.

(10 p.m. ET | ESPN)

I’m a bit leery of fading the Bucks, given their improvement defensively.

Limiting a Clippers team to 106 points with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden all available is certainly no small feat.

However, my handicap is predicated on a possible response from the Warriors following their lopsided loss. 

As a result, I’m expecting Golden State to get off to a fast start, and I like their chances even more if Antetokounmpo is held out for the game.

Per EV Analytics, the Warriors are on a 5-1 run against the spread at home in the first half. 

But the stat that really jumps out to me is the Warriors’ first-half performance at home off a loss of 28 or more points when they have a .500 record.

According to our Action Labs database, the Warriors are a perfect 6-0 in this spot against the spread.

The logic here is the Warriors tend to respond in the first half when coming off a blowout loss, provided they have a decent team that doesn’t have a losing record. 

At FanDuel, you can grab the Warriors to cover the first-half spread of -1.5 with odds at -115.