Buffalo vs. Toledo prediction, odds, pick, how to watch College Football Week 10 game
We have you covered with our college football odds series with a Buffalo-Toledo prediction and pick.
After some rough non-conference play to begin the season, the Buffalo Bulls have recovered in a big way. The Bulls are 3-1 in conference games and are sitting just one game behind Miami of Ohio for first place in the MAC East. This speaks volumes of this team's ability to overcome adversity after starting the season 0-4. In Buffalo's most recent game, they found themselves down 6-0 in the first quarter to Kent State. From there, they rallied to score 24 unanswered points and won 24-6. The defense's pressure paid dividends, as they didn't allow a single touchdown. With momentum, they will try to spoil the MAC West-leading Toledo Rockets.
Toledo, on the other hand, has not looked back since their close opening week loss to Illinois. Since that game, the Rockets are on a seven-game win streak with an average margin of victory of 17.1 points. Coming off of a bye, the Rockets will be looking to recover from their tough battle against Miami of Ohio. A game featuring the two leaders of the MAC did not disappoint. After Toldeo tossed Miami (OH) around in the first half to claim a 21-3 lead, the Rockets allowed them to score 14 unanswered points to make it 21-17 in the third quarter. From there, the defense prevailed and shut out the RedHawks to close them out. With an undefeated conference record, Toledo has much at stake in this Halloween matchup.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Buffalo-Toledo Odds
Buffalo: +15.5 (-105)
Toledo: -15.5 (-115)
Over: 49.5 (-110)
Under: 49.5 (-110)
How to Watch Buffalo vs. Toledo Week 10
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN2
Why Buffalo Will Cover The Spread
For Buffalo to cover on the road, it is less about focusing on their strengths and more about exposing Toledo's weaknesses. To start, the Rockets' 7.1 penalties per game lead to an average of 63.5 yards lost. Relative to Buffalo's 6.0 penalties per game turning to an average of 51 yards lost, this penalty differential could prove costly for Toledo. In addition, even though Toledo has one of the best run game's in the country, ball security has been a problem. The Rockets have had 12 fumbles this season, relative to Buffalo's four. If the Bulls can carry over their defensive intensity from two weeks ago, they will most definitely have the upper hand in this matchup.
On the surface it may seem as if Toledo has had some serious success in MAC play this season. However, in the eyes of Vegas, this team has been struggling. In four games, Toledo is 1-3 against the spread in conference play. This includes two games where they were favored by 13 points or more, and went on to win by less than a touchdown. Toledo's efficiency in winning games has been remarkable, but their consistency against the spread is a sign of caution.
Why Toledo Will Cover The Spread
From Kareem Hunt to Diontae Johnson to Chester Taylor, the Toledo Rockets have a record of producing high-level skill position players. Running back Peny Boone appears to be next in line. Boone currently ranks 10th in the nation in total rushing yards, with 865 on an average of 7.0 yards per carry. This features rushing for 113 or more yards in five of his eight games. He has also added eight rushing touchdowns on the season, which is tied for the 22nd most in the country. This efficiency for him on the ground has led to Toledo possessing one of the best ground games in all of college football. Their 1,860 total rushing yards leads the MAC by a margin of 324 yards and is the fourth most among all FBS teams. With this level of consistency, it is almost guaranteed that Boone will go off.
Aside from penalties, the biggest determining factor for a team's success is the ability to keep drives alive. The Rockets have executed phenomenally in this department this season. On 110 third downs faced, Toledo is converting at a 48.2% rate. Getting almost half of all third downs is massive and will be much needed to take care of business at home by putting up points in bunches against Buffalo.
Lastly, the run-and-pass protection for Toledo has been elite all season. This offensive line that features four seniors and one junior is as mature as it gets, and it shows. Paving the way consistently for Boone to find his lanes has been the key to their success. However, what is most impressive for this group is their pass protection. They have allowed only three sacks this season. If this O-Line play continues, the Bulls will not have a chance of stopping this offense.
Final Buffalo-Toledo Prediction & Pick
With both teams coming off of a bye week, they will be well-rested and ready for this contest. Tuesday Night MACtion has always had the reputation of having the craziest endings to games, so combining that with the fact that this is a Halloween game might lead to some wild turns. Considering this, along with the abundance of time these two have had to prepare, makes me believe this will be a close game. Although it is at home for Toledo, and I still expect them to win, I'll give the 15.5 points to the Buffalo Bulls. I expect quarterback Cole Snyder to continue performing at a high level and Toledo to continue with its self-inflicted wounds and give the Bulls a chance to compete. Give me Buffalo +15.5.
Final Buffalo-Toledo Prediction & Pick: Buffalo Bulls +15.5 (-105)
