Bulls vs Bucks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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06 April 2023

Bulls vs Bucks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

Giannis Antetokounmpo has not been a rebounding machine for the Bucks of late, and our NBA expert picks are fading him in this market once again as the Bulls come to town.

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The Milwaukee Bucks need just one win to seal home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, and notching that win tonight against the Chicago Bulls would give the Bucks needed time to rest up some minor injuries. That should be motivation enough for Milwaukee to win against overmatched Chicago, right?

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Bulls vs Bucks on April 5.

Bulls vs Bucks best odds

Bulls vs Bucks picks and predictions

The Bulls are 4-4 straight-up in their last eight games despite entering that stretch within two games of escaping the sudden death play-in. Even just last night, a win against the depleted Hawks would have put Chicago into a tie for the No. 9 seed out East, one game behind Toronto for the No. 8 and a reprieve from a win-or-go-home play-in spot. Instead, the Bulls got blown out by the Hawks, likely sealing Chicago’s plight as the No. 10 seed in the conference.

Last night’s debacle deserves some further criticism. The Bulls were favored by 5.5 points, yet lost by 18. After scoring the opening bucket, they would never lead again. By the end of the first quarter, they were down by double-digits and would never get within fewer than nine points again. Plenty of teams in the NBA have blown games they needed, but losing at home against the Hawks without two of their best three players is rather inexcusable when genuine playoff positioning was there for the grabbing.

If Chicago could not show up then, what makes you think the Bulls will do so on the road in the second half of a back-to-back with just about nothing at stake?

Tonight could turn into a blowout. At least, some version of one that would have this handicapper worried about a backdoor cover.

That backdoor cover would be possible because the Bucks should cruise through this game once it is out of hand. Win and secure the top seed in the playoffs — not just in the East, but in the entire NBA.

If building a comfortable enough lead does not take excessive stress, will Giannis Antetokounmpo hit the bench early? That would not be surprising, especially since Wednesday afternoon’s injury report listed him as only probable due to knee soreness. So there is one reason to think about some Unders on his player props.

Another reason is that his rebounding number may be a touch high. In eight of Antetokounmpo’s last 15 games, he grabbed 11 rebounds or fewer, falling short of double-digits six times. Go back 30 games, and Giannis had 11 or fewer rebounds 13 times.

The targeted stretch would be in the 20 games since Feb. 9, in which Giannis has failed to clear 11.5 rebounds in 12 games, though two of those included fewer than 10 minutes apiece as Antetokounmpo searched for full health around the All-Star break.

Antetokounmpo is not a guaranteed rebounding machine as of late. Partly because Milwaukee has other post presences in Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis, and partly because Giannis’ offensive focus sometimes takes away from banging beneath the rim.

Tonight, he may be looking at added bench time, so that inflated rebounding number presents even more value.

My best bet: Antetokounmpo Under 11.5 rebounds (+104 at FanDuel)

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Bulls vs Bucks spread analysis

After opening with Milwaukee favored by seven late Tuesday and jumping to -8 early Wednesday morning, this spread has returned to -7 at most books, with some posting -6.5 early in the afternoon.

That movement may tie to uncertainty about who exactly would play tonight. Though playing terribly, Chicago did try to win last night, playing only six players more than 20 minutes apiece, leaning on DeMar DeRozan for 37 minutes and Zach LaVine for 33. Now with barely a pipe dream of hosting a play-in game, the Bulls could understandably punt tonight and ease to next week’s do-or-die moment.

But all early indications are that Chicago will play its best players tonight, though who knows what that is worth. Again, Tuesday’s embarrassment warrants further doubt. It was not merely getting beat, it was getting beat for 47 minutes.

Milwaukee has done well as a moderate favorite, going 10-5 ATS since Feb. 1 as a favorite of more than three points but fewer than 10.

Bulls vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

This total has also bounced around a bit, opening at 231.0 and falling all the way to 228.0 by Wednesday morning before bouncing back to 230.0. Again, wonders about Chicago’s lineup would explain that.

Maybe the laughter at the Bulls’ Tuesday showing has been overdone, but one more thought: Chicago went 7-of-31 from deep. That type of performance should not be expected again, as no team is as good or as bad as its last showing. Since Feb. 1, the Bulls rank No. 17 in the league with a 35.4 shooting percentage from deep.

They will likely shoot plenty again tonight, and the total result could hinge on if they revert to their mean or not.