Bulls vs Cavaliers Odds, Lines & Predictions (Feb. 11)

Post-71 point game:19.5/3.6/5.2 on 40% shooting (31% from 3)3.5 rim attempts / game

1.7 floaters / game

— Mike Zavagno (@MZavagno11) February 6, 2023

The Cavs take a four-game winning streak into New Orleans on Friday. All four of those victories have come by double-digits. They boast a plus-75 point differential during that stretch, and have been nearly unbeatable at home all season.

Cleveland’s 23 home wins are tied for the most in the East, and second most in the NBA. They average over 3 more points per 100 possessions inside their own building than on the road, while yielding 3 fewer points per 100 possessions. They’re 7-2 in their last nine games at home, beating NBA Championship odds contenders like the Grizzlies, Clippers and Bucks during that stretch.

The Bulls meanwhile, enter play fresh off back-to-back losses on the road. They’re a dismal 10-18 away from home overall, losing seven of their past eight games as visitors.

While Cleveland is fighting for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, Chicago is clinging to a play-in tournament berth. They stood pat at the deadline, electing to move forward with the roster they have.

That group is led by DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine and Nikola Vucevic, who account for 59% of the team’s total offense. They’re the only three players on the roster who average more than 10 points per game, and the lack of depth has been an issue all season.

Putting up points has been a major issue for this team on the road, as they’re a bottom-11 scoring team as visitors. That’s a problem on most nights away from home, but it’s especially concerning versus Cleveland.

Bulls vs Cavaliers Trends

That’s because the Cavaliers lead the league in defensive rating. They’ve held Chicago to 102 points or less in two of their three meetings, while just one of Cleveland’s last six opponents have exceeded 100 points.

That stellar defense has helped propel the Cavaliers to one of the NBA’s best home cover rates. They’ve beaten the spread inside their own building at a 67.9% clip this season, with an average margin of victory of 8.9 points. They’ve also performed very well in the second half of back-to-backs, winning six of nine games, with five covers.

Chicago meanwhile, is a bottom-10 team versus the spread. They’re covering just 47% of their games so far, and are 12-14-2 ATS as visitors.

Give me the better team, with more depth, playing in the arena they’ve dominated at all year long.

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-110)