Bulls vs. Heat prediction, odds: how we’re betting the low total

With one more playoff spot up for grabs in the Eastern Conference, we have a Bulls vs. Heat prediction.

The winner of this single-elimination game will claim the eighth and final seed in the postseason and a date with the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round. Chicago kept its season alive by rallying from a 19-point deficit to defeat the Raptors 109-105 on the road in the first play-in game.

As for the Heat, they looked pedestrian in their 116-105 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Miami was doomed by another slow start, and despite a spirited second half, the deficit was too much to overcome.

The Hawks-Heat game extended a streak of eight straight games going under the total in the play-in tournament. And as the betting market adjusted, we saw the total plummet in the next two play-in games.

Now we have a total that opened as low as 208 points. In this preview, I’ll share why this opening number is too much of an adjustment by the bookmakers.

Spread: CHI +5.5 (-110) vs. MIA -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline: CHI (+180) vs. MIA (-225)

Total: Over 208.5 (-115) | Under 208.5 (-105)

Over 208.5 points

Injuries to Kyle Lowry largely impacted the Heat this season. The veteran point guard featured in only 55 games while making 44 starts.

Lately, Lowry is even coming off the bench. Initially, he was doubtful for the first play-in game after suffering a knee injury in the final contest of the regular season.

However, the Heat later described the injury as soreness and upgraded his status to questionable. Lowry came off the bench again and posted a season-high with 33 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the 3-point line.

If Miami can get that type of perimeter play from Lowry, who was healthy enough to play 33 minutes, I don’t see how this game stays under the total of 208.5 points.

There’s no question that some teams prioritized their draft capital during the regular season rather than compete to get into the play-in tournament down the stretch, but once you’re in, you might as well roll the dice and try to advance to the first round.

I think the Bulls will come into this game with more pep to their step after that thrilling comeback victory.

This season, Chicago performed closer to market expectation in the first half against the spread, going 39-44) than Miami (34-48-1). The Bulls also covered the first-half number in two of their three meetings this season before going on to win each game.

Thus, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw another slow start by Miami, followed by a frantic second-half finish to push the game over the total.