Bulls vs. Magic prediction: analyzing Chicago defense

Ahead of Monday night’s Eastern Conference NBA matchup in the Windy City, we’re here to provide a Bulls vs. Magic prediction and best bet.

After winning three straight games, the Bulls have sputtered recently to the tune of dropping three games in a row, including a road loss Saturday in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Magic have won three of their past five, but lost in overtime at home on Saturday against the Miami Heat.

The Bulls are a five-point favorite with the total set at 225.5 points. Those thinking the Magic can produce an outright win can get +160 on the moneyline.

Orlando Magic Team Total Under 110.5 Points (-110)

The Bulls defense has played exceptionally well against the Magic this season and I see no reason to fade that trend on Monday.

In two head-to-head meetings with Orlando, Chicago has allowed 108.5 points per game and held the Magic under this benchmark on both occasions. Put those two games — albeit a limited sample — against the Bulls’ defensive record for the season and bettors will find they’re holding the Magic to five fewer points per game compared to their season average.

Additionally, recent Bulls home results suggest their defense is primed for a good performance.

Across their past 10 games at the United Center, head coach Billy Donovan’s squad is allowing 110.6 points per game, still down from their season average of 113.6, while facing teams that average an adjusted offensive rating of 15.4, per dunksandthrees.com.

In fact, four of those 10 games came against sides with an adjusted offensive rating of 10th or better with half coming against top-half teams. Eliminate the four games against a top-10 adjusted offensive efficiency rated side from the sample and bettors will find the Bulls have held their opponent under this total in four of the remaining six games.

Monday night, they get to face a Magic offense that is quite inefficient and doesn’t perform well away from home.

For the season, Orlando ranks an abysmal 25th in adjusted offensive rating. Over their past 10 games, they’re 22nd in offensive rating.

Additionally, head coach Jamahl Mosley’s squad is a horrific 29th in road points per game this season, averaging only 108.5 points per game.

Recent form isn’t good either as the Magic have cleared this total only four times in their past eight games, irrespective of venue.

But, what gives me the most confidence in this play is that the Magic offense isn’t very good when facing an outstanding defense, particularly away from home.

In eight road games against the current top-10 in adjusted defensive rating, the Magic have cleared this total only twice and have failed to surpass 100 points only four times.

Even if you include the Magic’s home results against qualifying teams, they’re still overtaking this total at a 42 % rate with one of their successes coming as a function of an overtime game.

Based on those performances, I’ll bet this market at -120 or better.