Bulls vs Pelicans Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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25 February 2024

Bulls vs Pelicans Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The banged-up Chicago Bulls will try to find a way to win on the road as they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday night.

Chicago has lost three of four and has recently lost both Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams for the rest of the year. New Orleans has its own lineup concerns, as CJ McCollum will miss tonight’s game with an ankle injury.

With these injuries piling up and more players uncertain to take the court, bettors may want to look at the total tonight rather than the spread. We’ll break down what to expect in our free NBA picks for Bulls vs. Pelicans on February 25.

Bulls vs Pelicans odds

Bulls vs Pelicans predictions

The Chicago Bulls have played at arguably the slowest pace in the NBA this year. Yet that hasn’t mattered as of late, as the Bulls have been pulled into some high-scoring games, rewarding bettors who have backed the Over.

There are a couple of reasons for this trend. The injuries to LaVine and Williams haven’t helped Chicago’s defense.

As much as fans like to get on LaVine for his defensive shortcomings, he’s ultimately about league average in most defensive metrics, and Williams has been a versatile option that can help out anywhere from the two to the four depending on the opposing lineup.

At times, the Bulls have now had to play centers Andre Drummond and Nikola Vucevic on the court at the same time. That was most obvious during stretches of Chicago’s 129-112 loss to the Celtics on Thursday, yet another game that easily hit the Over.

While this lineup has helped the Bulls in the paint — especially when it comes to winning rebounding battles — it comes at the cost of perimeter flexibility, which is helping opponents score more against what is ultimately a mediocre defensive unit.

The New Orleans Pelicans are the better defensive team in tonight’s game — they just don’t play nearly as slow as the Bulls. However, injuries and illnesses are going to impact how New Orleans plays tonight as well. McCollum’s loss hurts on both ends, while Brandon Ingram is still questionable due to a non-COVID illness. Zion Williamson is also questionable due to an injured foot.

Normally, this level of injury concern would have me considering the Under. However, both teams still have more than enough scoring punch to get above a modest total tonight.

Chicago will suit up leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (22.6 points per game), as well as Coby White (19.6 ppg) and Vucevic (17.5 ppg), meaning LaVine is the only significant scorer that won’t be in the lineup.

Just about anyone can score for New Orleans, and I'd be surprised if the Pelicans don’t suit up either Williamson (22.5 ppg) or Ingram (21.4 ppg). Even if they don’t, we’ve seen Jonas Valanciunas, Trey Murphy, and even Herbert Jones pick up the slack on any given night.

Tonight’s total opened way too low, which is why bettors have been pushing it up throughout the day. I don’t expect a shootout tonight, as the injuries will have an impact, especially on New Orleans, but that’s not nearly enough to justify a total that doesn’t reflect the offensive talent of the players taking the court.

My best bet: Over 223.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Bulls vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Over 223.5

Bulls +4.5

Coby White 20+ points

Along with taking the Over tonight, I’m betting the Bulls to cover the spread as part of my SGP. On paper, New Orleans is the better team here and is playing at home, but the Pelicans are also playing their third game in four nights and could be without several key players. That gives me confidence the Bulls can hang around.

If we’re taking the Bulls and the Over, then we should round out our SGP with a bet on a Chicago player to hit a scoring prop. I’m picking White to score 20+ points tonight.

The young point guard has scored 20+ in seven of his last eight games and has become more emphasized in the offense with LaVine out of the lineup. This should be another excellent opportunity for him to pad the stat sheet.

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Bulls vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis

The Pelicans opened tonight’s game as a 3.5-point favorite over the Bulls. Most books are sticking with that number, though you can find some that have moved to New Orleans -4 as their main spread.

Both teams have performed well against the spread this year. Chicago is 29-26-1 ATS on the season, while the Pelicans are a solid 31-25-1 ATS for bettors.

If both teams were healthy and rested, New Orleans would be a much bigger favorite at home, but with injuries and illness decimating the Pelicans lineup, we now have what looks to be a competitive game.

New Orleans is also playing its third game in four nights, while Chicago has played just once since the All-Star Break. I’m wary of playing the spread, only because of how much uncertainty there is in the New Orleans lineup, but given the fatigue and injury issues, I’m leaning toward the Bulls tonight.

The total on this game opened at a flat 222 points. That number has risen significantly across the board, with the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 223.5, and some sites going up to 224. Most books are offering -110 on both sides, though you'll be able to find -108 on the Over at some sites.

Despite playing slowly all year, the Bulls have played above the total, with the Over holding a 30-25-1 record in their games. The Under holds a slim 30-27 edge when New Orleans plays this season.

The Bulls now longer seem to be able to keep opponents in check on pace alone, as they’ve allowed 108+ points in nine consecutive games. The sportsbooks haven’t caught up to this trend yet, as they consistently post low totals that Chicago plays above time and time again.

No matter who suits up tonight, there’s more than enough scoring ability out there to beat this tepid total. I’m backing the Over.