Buy or Sell Early 2023-24 NBA Championship Odds

The NBA is a machine that never shuts off.

The dust hasn't even begun to settle on the first championship in Denver Nuggets history, but at least 29 other organizations and fan bases (and maybe 30, considering what Nuggets coach Michael Malone said postgame) are already thinking about the 2023-24 season.

Specifically, we're all wondering who'll win the 2024 Finals. And FanDuel's sportsbook is right there with us.

Hardwood Paroxysm @HPbasketball

NBA Championship Odds for 2023-24 pic.twitter.com/2lKLhnNzaA

Unsurprisingly, Denver is a favorite to win it all next year, but they're not alone. The Milwaukee Bucks have the same odds. And the Boston Celtics aren't far behind.

Which of the lines above are worth buying? And which ones should you sell? Scroll below to find out.

The Nuggets' starting five of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić led all NBA lineups in 2022-23 plus-minus.

Over the regular and postseason, Denver outscored its opponents by 271 points. And all five of those players will be back for the 2023-24 campaign.

That alone should (and probably will) make everyone take the Nuggets seriously, but there's more.

Jokić, Murray, MPJ and Gordon are all under 30. There's real danger of losing Bruce Brown (who can decline a $6.8 million player option and almost certainly make a lot more as an unrestricted free agent), but Christian Braun and Peyton Watson are both on rookie contracts and have plenty of upside.

And now that the Nuggets have the shine of a reigning champion, and everyone's seen the way Jokić elevates teammates on the biggest stage, title-chasing veterans should be eager to play for Denver on minimum- or exception-sized contracts.

Malone, Jokić and Murray have been together for seven years, but there's a very real chance this is just the beginning for this team.

Since the start of 2016-17, Jaylen Brown's rookie year, the Boston Celtics have racked up 61 playoff wins. That trails only the Golden State Warriors (68).

Of course, this group has yet to win the final game of any postseason, but that's an awful lot of victories. And that might make betting against them silly.

Adding Sam Cassell and Bucks associate head coach Charles Lee to Joe Mazzulla's coaching staff should help too, particularly in the late-game situations that ultimately doomed Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals.

What puts this group on the "sell" side of the ledger is a pair of hypotheticals.

First, and perhaps most important, there has to be some concern about Brown even being on the team.

After making All-NBA, he's eligible for a five-year, $295 million deal one summer before Jayson Tatum is eligible for five years and $318 million. Those two deals alone would push Boston more than halfway to the $179.5 million "second apron" line that brings potentially crippling team-building penalties with it.

If the Celtics come to the conclusion that that's not a title-caliber top two (not a given, but the flameout against the Miami Heat has to be at least mildly troubling), it doesn't make a ton of sense to play out his current contract.

And there are already rumors circulating about the Houston Rockets potentially being interested in trading for him.

Beyond the prospect of a Brown deal, there's also the gauntlet that the East figures to be next season. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid will all still be around.

The Bucks figure to flirt with that "second apron," as well. If Khris Middleton were to pick up his $40.4 million player option for 2024, Milwaukee would have over $150 million committed to just seven players. And that doesn't include unrestricted free agent Brook Lopez.

What Boston doesn't have, though, with all due respect to Tatum, is the second or third best player in the world.

Antetokounmpo's 54.8 true shooting percentage over the last two postseasons falls well shy of his 61.9 over those regular seasons. And the Bucks are 19th out of 21 teams in points scored per 100 possessions over the last two playoffs.

It's fair to be concerned about their offense, especially in high-leverage moments. But the numbers above are from just 15 games. That's obviously a small sample, and we're just three years removed from a title run in which Antetokounmpo averaged 30.2 points, 12.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

Giannis is 28 years old, and if he, Jrue Holiday and a healthy Middleton are all back, Milwaukee will be a force.

Over the last three regular and postseasons, the Bucks are plus-11.8 points per 100 possessions when all three of the above are on the floor.

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers deserve a ton of credit for a midseason roster overhaul that propelled them all the way to the Western Conference Finals.

Empowering and entrusting D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves to create offense was huge, particularly in the way it spared LeBron for stretches.

But both of those guards are free agents this summer. Even if both come back, they're not going to completely stop or turn back the clock on LeBron either.

It doesn't make much sense to doubt him (he's already smashed any previous expectations we may have had for a lead playmaker in his late 30s), but a decline has to be coming at some point. And LeBron turns 39 in December.

At this point, given his injury history, it's fair to wonder how much longer 30-year-old Anthony Davis' peak will last too.

As good as the revamped supporting cast was, it's not good enough to carry L.A. to a championship if one or both of James or AD is compromised.

If your counter to all of the above is, "What if they get Kyrie Irving?" I'd simply point out that he's played fewer games and minutes than either of LeBron or AD over the last four years. Availability might be a bigger question with him than either of the Lakers' incumbent stars.

And under the new collective bargaining agreement, three star-level salaries might crush your ability to build a full roster.

Buying the Miami Heat is a bit of a value play. They just made the Finals and are tied for the 10th-shortest odds to win it all in 2024.

The run that just ended at the hands of the Nuggets shouldn't be seen as a fluke (despite Miami's one play-in loss and the fact that it was the eighth seed).

Butler has been with the Heat for four seasons. He's made two Finals and three Conference Finals over that span. And Miami have the trade ammunition to bring another star to play with him and Bam Adebayo in 2023-24.

The Heat can trade multiple first-round picks this summer, and they have plenty of salaries (like Kyle Lowry's $29.6 million, Tyler Herro's $27.0 million or Duncan Robinson's $18.1 million) to send out or aggregate as well.

Plus, Erik Spoelstra and Miami's famous #HeatCulture will still be around too.

If the Heat make another run to the last round or two of the playoffs in 2024, no one should be surprised.

This feels like the most dangerous sell on the list.

The Golden State Warriors were plus-23.0 points per 100 possessions when Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney were on the floor in the 2022-23 regular and postseason. That was, by far, the best net rating of any five-minute lineup with at least 300 minutes.

But Curry, Thompson and Green are all in their 30s now. Depth is critical for keeping a title window open for an older team like this, and that was already a big problem in 2022-23.

When at least two of the aforementioned starters were off the floor, Golden State's net rating plummeted to minus-2.7. And no team is more in danger of losing depth as a result of the new collective bargaining agreement.

If Green were to pick up his player option, the Warriors would have over $200 million in salary committed to next season's team. Getting under that $179.5 million "second apron" line might require trading Jordan Poole for nothing. And that alone might not get it done. Other cost-cutting moves could be in order.

If the roster after the top five guys is decimated, it'll be more than tricky to get back to the Finals.

On top of that, the Warriors are in the same conference as Jokić and the Nuggets. Last time they faced him in the playoffs, they won in large part because of the absence of Murray, but they still have no one to defend the big man.

In that series, Jokić averaged 31.0 points, 13.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists, while shooting 57.5 percent from the field.