Can Billy Napier’s Florida Gators football team make a Year 2 jump?
GAINESVILLE — Listen to Florida Gators coach Billy Napier talk about any team long enough, and you’ll probably hear him recite the same stat: How long an opposing coach has been at that school.
The implication is that programs become established as coaching tenures wear on, with standards that are better defined and systems that get more refined.
Which means it’s fair to up the expectations on Napier after his 6-7 debut as his Gators open Year 2 Thursday at No. 14 Utah.
“We’re just in a little bit better place relative to establishing routine and familiarity,” Napier said, “so I think we’ll benefit from that.”
His belief is rooted in history. His mentor, Nick Saban, jumped from a 7-6 first year to an undefeated regular season in Year 2 at Alabama. Urban Meyer took Florida to the Outback Bowl in Year 1 and won it all in Year 2.
Napier himself rose from 7 victories to 11 (then a program record) in his second year at Louisiana. His offense soared from 41st in scoring to 10th.
“I go back to the analogy: Students aren’t in the material for the second time,” Napier said. “The teachers teach the material for the second time.”
Year 1, Napier said, featured a long list of issues to fix. Though Napier had a blueprint for his support staff when he interviewed for the job, he still had to make the hires. He had to overhaul the recruiting department, move into a new building, install infrastructure and tailor everything else to meet his requirements.
All that takes time — time he and his staff couldn’t use for the actual coaching part of their jobs.
“We’ve spent more time on things that will affect the final result than maybe last year,” Napier said.
Three of Florida’s seven losses were one-score games last season, and two others (LSU and Kentucky) were one-score games with two minutes left. If the Gators have been able to devote more energy to X’s and O’s, it’s reasonable to think they can squeeze out another win or two in close games.
Napier’s players see other benefits to the coaching continuity. Jason Marshall said the Gators spent much of last season trying to figure out how Napier runs everything.
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“Coming into Year 2, everyone is settled in, bought in, and it’s only up from here,” Marshall said.
Napier, more than most coaches, stresses the importance of culture and camaraderie in his belief that better people make better players. That, too, appears to be materializing.
“We’ve gotten closer as a team …” receiver Ricky Pearsall said. “We just bring a lot more energy, physicality. We’re just all excited, and what’s important and what stands out to me the most is we truly believe. We truly believe in each other and the coaches and the system, and that’s going to go a long ways for us.”
But how far?
Betting odds still peg Florida as a fringe bowl team. Even if the Gators outplay their projected win total (5½), it’s hard to see them seriously challenging Georgia or Tennessee for the SEC East title this season.
Though history provides examples of Year 2 jumps, Meyer and Saban didn’t have to navigate the transfer portal or name, image and likeness. Napier acknowledged as much this spring when he said new coaches are essentially “giving away two years of your life” to build a program his way.
“It takes awhile to get it going,” Napier said.
Not everywhere, of course. TCU’s Sonny Dykes and LSU’s Brian Kelly microwaved their way to big debut seasons last year and start this fall in the top 20. They present a strong counterargument to Napier and, if Florida hovers around .500 again, will be red meat to a notoriously impatient fan base.
Napier, however, isn’t interested in comparisons.
“I think that we have been tasked with not just being competitive here; we want to accomplish significant success big picture,” Napier said. “We know what this place is capable of.”
It might just take more than two seasons to get there.
Can Billy Napier follow Nick Saban, Urban Meyer?
A look at some of the notable second-season spikes:
Urban Meyer, Florida: His Gators went 9-3 and won the Outback Bowl in 2005, then won the SEC and crushed Ohio State for the program’s second national championship in Year 2.
Nick Saban, Alabama: After a 7-6 first season that included a loss to Louisiana Monroe, Saban’s Crimson Tide had a perfect regular season in Year 2 before losing to Florida in the SEC championship.
Kirby Smart, Georgia: The Bulldogs won seven games in his first regular season and suffered a two-score loss to Jim McElwain’s Gators. Smart was a second-and-26 stop away from beating Alabama for the national title in Year 2.
Pete Carroll, USC: A 6-6 first season didn’t portend what followed: an 11-2 record and the first of seven consecutive seasons that ended with a top-four ranking.
Jim Tressel, Ohio State: A 7-5 record and Outback Bowl loss in 2001 turned into a perfect sophomore season capped off by a double-overtime win over Miami for the national title (in a game that’s still controversial in Coral Gables).
