Can Derby second King Of Steel go one better for Amo Racing in King Edward VII Stakes?
There are two opposing forces working to keep the King Edward VII Stakes as roughly the same standard of race as it was 15 years ago. You can see one of them in the field size. Through the 2000s and the 2010s, the average sat just north of eight. This will be the fourth successive running to attract a field of six.
That reflects a diminishing pool of horses bred for middle distances.
The equal and opposite reaction here is in how middle-distance horses are campaigned. Relative to the sort of horses you see in the Commonwealth Cup, King Edward VII types are backwards. Even though the middle-distance pool is drying up, a higher proportion of them are being brought along slowly.
That means there is still a ready market for this race, which acts as a schooling ground for the top-level middle-distance races in the second half of the year. Many of those come abroad as five of the last ten King Edward VII winners have gone on to win at the highest level, but three had to go overseas to do so.
With all that said, each of the six runners was readied for a Derby last time. Four ran at Epsom, one at Chantilly in the Prix du Jockey Club, and one in the Derby Italiano. How ready they actually were is up for debate, aside from King Of Steel, who almost defied his notable inexperience when finishing second to Auguste Rodin.
It is hard to rule out further improvement from a horse that has only run three times, and once as a three-year-old. Yet, counter to the rider's self-effacing remarks straight after the Derby, Kevin Stott got the best out of his mount at Epsom. Given the pace they had gone, and the position he was in with only a downhill run to come, kicking on when he did was the best move. To crab him would be to judge him by the yard. Auguste Rodin was simply a much better horse on the day.
Two of those behind him at Epsom were unable to give their best and remain with similar potential. Arrest was favourite, partly on the Dettori factor but partly because he had dotted up in a major trial. Artistic Star had much the same profile coming in as King Of Steel, and had been more popular in the betting. Yet he got neither the ride nor the breaks to do his best work. He had just as much potential then and does not have a fifth of the chance now.
The unknowable is Relentless Voyager, who has already taken the road less travelled by finishing third in the Derby Italiano. That form looks plenty solid enough. The winner has been out since, matching blows with a couple of established mid-110s German-trained horses in the Gran Premio di Milano.
Relentless Voyager should not be discriminated against, just because he has done the foreign expedition first. His potential is in line with most King Edward VII winners. The onus is on the likes of King Of Steel to show that Derby horses still deserve to be treated as better than this sort of level.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose
'We're confident of a big run from King Of Steel'
For a moment it looked as though King Of Steel was going to win the Derby before just being reeled in by the winner Auguste Rodin.
The three-year-old was sent off at 66-1 on his third start and bounded into the lead with two furlongs to go, only to be beaten by half a length.
Owned by Amo Racing, King Of Steel will be sent off a great deal shorter this time and is the likely red-hot favourite for trainer Roger Varian.
"He ran really well in the Derby," said the trainer. "He's done nothing wrong since and ought to have improved for the experience at Epsom."
Amo Racing is bidding for its second success at the royal meeting having enjoyed its elusive breakthrough with shock 150-1 winner Valiant Force in the Norfolk Stakes on Thursday.
King Of Steel (right): narrowly denied in the Derby
"We build our year around this week so it's important and we've hit the crossbar a few times," said Amo's racing manager Tom Pennington.
"We had a long think about coming here, but it fits in quite well with next month's Grand Prix de Paris and he's favourite in a six-runner race.
"It seemed like the logical choice to run and if he turns up in the same form he did at Epsom this month we're confident of a big run."
King Of Steel scored impressively on his debut at Nottingham for Dave Loughnane before finishing down the field in the Vertem Futurity Trophy in October.
He was due to make his first appearance for Varian in the Dante Stakes at York in May but was withdrawn after becoming restless in the stalls.
The market suggests his chief opposition will be Arrest, who was sent off the 4-1 favourite in the Derby but faded into tenth under Frankie Dettori.
Juddmonte's Arrest won the Chester Vase by six and a half lengths on soft ground on his penultimate start for trainers John and Thady Gosden.
What they say
Ralph Beckett, trainer of Artistic Star
He's been giving us all the right signals this week so we're rolling the dice again after his run in the Derby.
Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Continuous
He ran really well in the Dante and we were delighted with him there, but things didn't go according to plan in the French Derby for one reason or another. We think he's better than that and he seems to be in good form.
Oisin Murphy, rider of Relentless Voyager
He ran very well to finish third in the Italian Derby. It's a small field and we obviously have to respect King Of Steel, who ran so well in the Derby.
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