Can Mackenzie Dern get back on track against Angela Hill?

Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill, two contenders in the strawweight division, will face off in the main event of UFC Fight Night at UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).

Dern, ranked No. 9 in ESPN's divisional rankings, has lost two of her last three fights. Her last bout ended in a majority-decision loss to Yan Xiaonan in October. Hill, unranked by ESPN, has won back-to-back fights. She beat Emily Ducote by unanimous decision in her most recent fight in December.

Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC women's featherweight title challenger and ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson to get her perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill

Megan Anderson, former UFC women's featherweight

How Dern wins: I actually find this fight really difficult for Dern, because of the striking. While Dern's striking has evolved, her best chance is to close range and wrestle. Her ability to get the fight to the mat is still improving. Her jiu-jitsu is leaps and bounds over the majority of this division. For her to use it, it's absolutely about closing range, but that's going to be difficult with Hill's striking volume. I don't think Dern will be able to lunge in and just blindly grab Hill like she has some others, because Angela's range and footwork are so good. She'll have to set up for takedowns better, using her striking. Use feints and the double jab and chain takedowns together as opposed to just looking for one shot. Dern has to blend both skills together in this fight, because when she's focusing solely on one or the other, there's no in between and that's when she's least effective.

How Hill wins: She needs to emphatically stop the takedowns early, because Dern always comes out super strong. But once Dern's opponents figure out her timing and the shots she's looking for, it's easier for them to read. So, Hill needs to stop things early and use that range and footwork. The jab is going to be money for Angela here. She has to set up everything off the jab. Don't just head hunt. Go to the body, head, legs -- and be patient. Mackenzie is going to come out swinging and she has power. If she lands, she can do serious damage. Angela knows she has the cardio to go five hard rounds, so be patient and don't let Mackenzie initiate the takedown. And even if Hill is in the clinch with Dern, use those knees and elbows to disengage.

X-factor: Dern's grappling. If the fight does go to the mat, while Hill is very skilled and has experience everywhere, her skills are not the same as Dern's on the ground. If Dern is able to get a fight there, it's always an X factor.

Prediction: I'm gonna go with Hill by decision. I just don't think Dern is going to be able to safely close the range to get the fight to where she wants.

Betting analysis

Kuhn: Mackenzie Dern (-170), prop bet on Dern inside the distance. Dern is one of the most dangerous grapplers at strawweight, but only when she actually gets the fight to the mat. Slowly but surely, she's been learning to set up her takedowns with striking and clinch work, rather than simply shooting from a distance and getting stuffed.

Although Hill boasts 77% takedown defense, she's primarily a muay thai-style striker -- meaning she tends to be more upright in her stance. To capitalize on that, Dern might willingly clinch with Hill just to close distance, then use those positions for higher-success takedowns.

Once on the ground, Hill has shown she can be controlled by opponents much of the time. Dern attempts almost two submissions per trip to mat, and has a full arsenal to choose from once in position. Five rounds is a lot of time to work. I think she eventually gets a finish.

Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-164). Hill has continued to improve her takedown defense, and when she is able to keep the fight standing, she is often the better striker. Win or lose, each of Hill's last eight fights have gone the distance, which I think happens here, as well. However, if you were to take a side, I lean toward the takedown defense and striking of Hill.

Best bets on the rest of the card

Middleweight: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez

Kuhn: Shahbazyan to win (+205). This Is a rare instance where I see less value on the wrestler in a striker versus grappler matchup. Hernandez spends more time controlling opponents on the mat than any fighter on the card, usually a standout metric. But he also has the worst head strike defense on the card, making him particularly vulnerable to strikers.

At such extreme odds, I think the value is on the striker to exploit the lazy defense of Hernandez. There's also clear finishing potential on both sides, so a bet on Under 2.5 Rounds could present value.

Welterweight: Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley

Kuhn: Buckley to win (-230). This one could be a slobberknocker. It's two guys that are willing to strike but play a little loose on defense. In this scenario, Buckley is the one with better power, pace and head strike avoidance.

Those standing metrics are enough to think Buckley is a deserving favorite, but Fialho's complete lack of a ground game is another red flag if we were looking for underdog value. In a standing duel, it's hard to side with a guy who gets hit a lot and is facing someone swinging for the fences.

Lightweight: Michael Johnson vs. Diego Ferreira

Parker: Johnson to win (+125). At one point, Ferreira was on a six-fight win streak and was looked at as a dark horse in the division. But he's coming off a layoff that lasted over two years, and we have seen that can be harmful to some fighters. In addition, he was finished in his last two fights. At underdog odds, I'll take Johnson here. I believe he has better striking and his takedown defense is good enough to neutralize the jiu-jitsu skills of Ferreira.

Welterweight: Orion Cosce vs. Gilbert Urbina

Parker: Urbina to win (+100). If Cosce hasn't improved his cardio and can't get a finish in Round 1, I believe he is going to have a hard time in the second and third rounds against the relentless Urbina. Urbina, who we last saw in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter Season 30, will be the better striker with better cardio. And when he gets taken down, he normally gets back to his feet quickly. If Urbina can weather the storm in the first round and press the pace, I believe he can pull off the upset in his return to the Octagon.

Women's flyweight: Natalia Silva vs. Victoria Leonardo

Parker: Silva to win inside the distance Leonardo is running into an absolute beast in Silva, who is rightfully the biggest favorite on the card. In this matchup against Leonardo, she is better wherever the fight goes and as long as it lasts. Instead of putting Silva, who is -850, in a parlay, I am going to take her to get the win inside the distance.