Can Marlins Infielder Have .400 Average by All-Star Break?

sportsbookreview.com

13 June 2023

Luis Arraez is charting a course toward potentially joining a unique and small group. But can he maintain his torrid hitting pace and finish with a .400 batting average? Or even do that by the All-Star break? Let's examine the odds for Luis Arraez to be a .400 hitter from our best sports betting apps.

Luis Arraez is no stranger to putting wood to ball often and making that difficult task look breezy.

The Miami Marlins infielder finished with 173 hits in 2022, good enough for 12th league-wide. He also consistently ends his campaigns with an impressive average, hitting over .300 three times previously. He ranked fourth in MLB at .316 in 2022, and the 26-year-old boasts a career .325 average over 451 games.

But this season is different. This season could be historic.

Two of our best MLB betting sites are aware of that potential, too, and appealing value is being offered based on a question: Will Luis Arraez be a .400 hitter at the All-Star break?

Luis Arraez .400 average at the All-Star break odds

(odds via FanDuel and bet365 as of June 13 at 12:33 p.m. ET)

In a tier by himself

Arraez is hitting .391 as of June 13, a number that sounds fake and not possible.

But here we are in mid-June and 62 games into Arraez's season talking about a player who's on his own planet in terms of batting average. Arraez is tied with Bo Bichette for the league lead in hits at 91, but he's far ahead of Freddie Freeman's .338 average, and the .328 from Ronald Acuna Jr.

Earlier in the season, the gaps between Arraez and the rest were grabbing your attention. But now with his hitting continuing, our best sports betting sites are prompting another reaction: A reach into your wallet.

Taking that plunge and sprinkling a little fun money on Arraez is mighty tempting given the odds, and the clear lean in that regard is toward FanDuel's +830 price. But Arraez isn't just facing an uphill battle after incredibly posting 28 multi-hit games already and hitting a quadruple-take-inducing .432 so far in June. He's climbing the Everest of baseball.

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Arraez vs. history

A player has finished the season at or above a .400 average just 35 times, according to the Baseball Almanac. The last to do it in the American or National League was Ted Williams in 1941 after hitting .406.

Of course, FanDuel and bet365 are moving up the finish line to the beginning of the All-Star break on July 10. But only two players have been at hitting .400 at that date or beyond over the past 46 years. Rod Carew sat right on .400 prior to the break in 1977, and in 1980 George Brett first hit the mark on Aug. 17, and he hovered around there until Sept. 4 before his pace fell slightly.

When we look to more recent production to account for how much the game has changed with the emphasis on power hitting, the best average over the past decade is the .364 from DJ LeMahieu in 2020, though that came during the pandemic-shortened season. Next up is the .348 in 2016, also from LeMahieu.

Of course, all of that history came before the fresh new era of baseball in 2023 with the shift outlawed. That's opened up plenty of holes for the heavy-contact hitters like Arraez to spray balls through. Does that provide the opportunity he'll need?

One final push

There are 26 games remaining on the Marlins' schedule before the All-Star break. For anyone else, that would be a lot of treacherous terrain to navigate. But Arraez has gone hitless in a game just 11 times all season.

The Marlins' schedule is inviting, too. Of the eight opponents left before the All-Star break, only two field a pitching staff that currently ranks among the top 10 in ERA. That stretch includes the Philadelphia Phillies (22nd in ERA), Boston Red Sox (23rd), and Washington Nationals (25th). Miami plays a combined nine games against the latter lowly group.

So, there will be matchup opportunities to exploit. But although he's never been one to hit lots of torpedoes, Arraez has been maintaining his high average while leaning even more on exceedingly soft contact.

Arraez produced a hard-hit rate of 30.6 and 30.2 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. That's basement-level low, and now he's gone through the foundation. He's in the bottom 2% of the league with a 23.4% hard-hit rate, which is more in line with his 2019 season when Arraez's average eventually finished at .334. As a result, his actual batting average in 2023 is miles above Arraez's expected average of .331. He also sits in just the second percentile in barrel rate, all according to Baseball Savant.

However, the shift ban remains the wild card, and one that gives hitters who put the ball in play often a massive edge. That clearly applies to Arraez, as striking him out feels like a tale the pitcher should tell his grandchildren about around a cozy fire. He struck out on just 7.1% of his plate appearances in 2022, and that's down to 5.1% now.

The concerns about his lack of power are justified, and a .407 babip is sky-high even when accounting for the new infield alignments (he finished at .331 in 2022). But although regression might be coming, that will likely take place over the long haul.

Arraez is in the final sprint to the All-Star break, and the matchup hurdles he needs to clear along the way aren't high. The new MLB rules opened the door for this sort of batted-ball eruption, and now you can capitalize on the alluring plus-odds price FanDuel is offering.