Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo predictions

mmafighting.com

30 September 2023

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo predictions

Canelo Alvarez is once again the hunted.

In his past three fights, the legendary Canelo has dealt with a wide range of expectations. Against Dmitry Bivol, he attempted to recapture gold in a division he hadn’t competed in in since 2019; against Gennadiy Golovkin, he aimed to close the door on his most famous rivalry; and against John Ryder, he was positioned to put on a showcase in an emotional Mexico homecoming.

Canelo stumbled against Bivol, but took care of business against “GGG” and Ryder, and now he has a fresh challenger looking to build their own legacy off him. Jermell Charlo moves up two weight classes to take on Canelo and add the super middleweight titles to his own collection of light middleweight straps.

Charlo is a sizeable underdog, and for good reason. Only Floyd Mayweather Jr., Golovkin, and Bivol have gone the distance with a prime Canelo and avoided a loss, so the pressure is on Charlo to plant his name among those luminaries. Is he catching a past-his-prime champion or will this version of Canelo still be too much on fight night?

What: Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo

Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Sept. 30. The preliminary card begins at 5:30 p.m. ET and MMA Fighting will have a live stream of this portion of the show. The four-fight main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on FITE pay-per-view, with Canelo and Charlo expected to make the walk out for the main event around 11:15 p.m. ET.

The case for Charlo

Lee: For Charlo, everything starts with his jab.

He’ll throw it to control range, he’ll throw it to set up combos, he’ll even occasionally throw it to counter. It’s crisp, precise, and one of his best weapons. Despite giving up 10 pounds at the scale, Charlo actually enters this contest with a small reach advantage, and he’ll have to use every inch to keep Canelo off of him.

In the past, Charlo has shown he’s not afraid to brawl, but getting into fiery exchanges with the bigger Canelo is a terrible idea. If he recklessly stands and trades with Canelo for any period of time, he’s going to end up flat on the canvas. He’ll have to pick his spots if he wants to land with power, which isn’t difficult for him as he’s more than willing to throw his right hand with or without a proper setup.

Charlo’s footwear should see a lot of wear by the end of this fight as he will spend much of the bout working from outside. Canelo is dangerous with his counters, and one tact that Charlo could take is to frustrate the super middleweight champion with straight shots from distance in the hopes that he can goad Canelo into making a mistake. That’s much easier said than done because Canelo will have no issue wading through the occasional shot to crowd Charlo and punish him with punches inside.

Charlo has shown himself to be defensively irresponsible at times, which won’t fly against Canelo. That uppercut of Canelo’s remains a monstrous weapon, and though we’ve seen Charlo eat some hard shots in the past, a few of those from Canelo will end his night fast. Get in and get out. That has to be Team Charlo’s motto for this matchup.

One other potential pitfall that Charlo has to watch out for is that he has been criticized for being too robotic with his approach. He jabs, he jabs, he jabs some more, and when he sees an opening, he fires combinations down the pipe. Sometimes, he’ll continue with a combination even if he’s catching nothing but glove. He has the cardio to throw as much as he wants, but Canelo will easily pick up on his tendencies if he senses that Charlo is in flowchart mode.

Charlo isn’t actually the younger fighter here (he’s actually two months older than Canelo), but he certainly has less mileage on him: This is Charlo’s 38th fight, the 64th for Canelo. The time might just be right for Charlo to snag this upset. He’s precise, he has power in both hands, and he should have enough of a speed advantage to give Canelo problems.

It might not be the sexiest performance, but I think Charlo can use his movement and accuracy to steal enough rounds to surprise Canelo and take a decision.

The case for Canelo

Meshew: I respect AK for picking the Charlo side of this fight. Me? I believe that the low-hanging fruit is perfectly delicious, and it doesn’t get much more low-hanging than a -475 betting favorite.

“But why is Canelo such a big favorite given Mr. Lee’s compelling arguments?”

Well, simply put, because he’s going to win.

Let’s start with the most basic point to this entire fight: Charlo is jumping up two weight classes. Yes, Charlo is a naturally big junior middleweight, but now he’s coming up 14 pounds to super middleweight, and he’s fighting a man who has fought as high as light heavyweight. The thing about jumping weight classes is that it’s not just about the size, it’s about the power and the ability to absorb heavier shots coming back at you. We know for certain that Canelo’s power carries up to 175, and that he can take shots from true light heavyweights. Charlo has fought his entire career at 154. That’s a big difference.

Speaking of power and the ability to take a shot, Canelo’s chin is battle-tested against some exceptionally strong punchers, again, even up a weight class. As AK noted, Charlo isn’t exactly known for his defense, but he often gets away with it because he can thump. That seems unlikely to matter much again a man as durable as Canelo, and when Charlo inevitable opens up his offense, Canelo’s return fire will be deadly.

The last (and arguably most important) point in favor of Canelo is literally everything else. Per Compubox (via ESPN), Canelo throws more, lands more, and lands at a higher percentage than Charlo in both total strikes and power strikes. He’s a better jabber than Charlo and a better power puncher than Charlo. All that put in a package that is two weight classes heavier. Oh, and Canelo is the much better and more committed body puncher. Honestly, that doesn’t leave much room for Charlo to work.

The one thing people have pointed to that lines up in Charlo’s favor, and that AK noted, is the mileage on Canelo. He’s been fighting for 18 years, with 63 fights (that we can confirm, I would strongly suspect he’s got more than that given the start of his career), and he’s faced a ton of criticism for his recent performances, but I’m here to tell you that’s all explicable. Dmitriy Bivol was clearly too big for him, the Gennady Golovkin threematch was a fine performance against a guy he wasn’t all that invested in fighting a third time, and his inability to finish John Ryder in May is more a testament to the heart of Ryder, not to Canelo dropping off.

If Canelo comes in Saturday and looks gun shy, or a little slower, it won’t be entirely shocking given his mileage in the sport, but it’s not likely. And even if he is slowing down, having the benefit of fighting a man two weight classes smaller than you is a great way to mitigate the fade. I simply do not believe Charlo is good enough to bridge the gap, even if Canelo is possibly falling off. That’s not to diminish Charlo, mind you. He’s an exceptional boxer, one of the best in the world, but he’s simply giving up too much against another boxer who is knocking on the door of all-time great status. On Saturday, I expect Canelo to make a statement that will silence the few doubters who have cropped up in recent years.