Cardinals-Diamondbacks prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, July 25

The St. Louis Cardinals (45-56) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (54-47) will play the second game of their three-game series on Tuesday, July 25. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. St. Louis will send southpaw Steven Matz (1-7, 4.67 ERA) to the mound while Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly (9-4, 3.22 ERA) in his return from the IL.

The Diamondbacks are the -120 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cardinals are the +100 underdog, and the run total is set at nine.

Cardinals-Diamondbacks picks: Tuesday, July 25

Injury report

Cardinals

Day-to-day: C Willson Contreras (hip), 2B/DH Nolan Gorman (back)
Out: INF/OF Tommy Edman (wrist)

Diamondbacks

Out: SP Zach Davies (back), C Gabriel Moreno (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Steven Matz vs. Merrill Kelly

Matz will take the mound for the 22nd time this year, logging his 14th start. He finally found the win column his last time out. Matz pitched five innings against the Chicago Cubs, allowing only one earned run on three hits. He struck out six and walked one.

Kelly has been on the IL with a blood clot issue in his leg since late June. His last start came against the San Francisco Giants, and he got rocked. Kelly pitched five innings and allowed seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits. He struck out and walked two but took the fourth loss of his season.

Over/Under pick

The first game of the series saw the teams combine for 16 runs. 52.1% of the Cardinals’ games are hitting the over, while the same can be said for 48.4% of the Diamondbacks’ games. I'm taking the over with the recent performances of these starting pitchers and lineups.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

St. Louis was able to get back into the win column on Tuesday after dropping three games in a row. The All-Star break seemingly came at a horrible time for Arizona as they have lost eight of their 10 games since the start of the second half. The Diamondbacks are the better team, and I think there is a better chance for Kelly to have a good outing in his return than for Matz to log two good starts in a row.