Celtics vs Pacers Prop Bets

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02 December 2023

The Pacers have shown time and again that they boast one of the best scoring attacks the NBA has ever seen. With Tyrese Haliburton coming into his own as a legit superstar, he is one player we are targeting with our Celtics-Pacers player prop picks.

The NBA’s inaugural In-Season Tournament quarterfinals tip off on Monday, December 4 with a matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. While the Celtics have championship aspirations, it’s the Pacers who went 4-0 in the group stage to earn homecourt advantage.

If there’s a theme to these NBA picks, it’s that the Pacers have the most efficient offense of all time. However, on any given night, their opponent happens to be scoring just as well or better.

The Pacers infect the game with their breakneck style of play, almost inviting opposing shot attempts just to get the ball back faster so they can try and score again. So, broadly speaking, the name of the game for NBA odds in Pacers matchups is Overs.

My three favorite NBA player props for Celtics vs. Pacers highlight Tyrese Haliburton’s superstar turn, Obi Toppin’s new context, and Myles Turner improving at an essential big-man skill.

Best Celtics vs Pacers player props today

Picks made on December 3 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Celtics vs Pacers player props for December 4

Tyrese Haliburton is off to a blistering start this season and is quickly cementing himself as a Top-5 offensive player in the entire NBA.

Indeed, he’s been playing so well that he’s drawing comparisons to two-time MVP Steve Nash, and it’s an apt comparison. But while Nash was an outstanding shooter, he always leaned more heavily into the playmaking aspects of his game.

Haliburton is a similar kind of player to Nash, but he’s also a product of this era. Point guards in today's NBA are encouraged to think "score first, pass second" and Tyrese has begun to demonstrate that he is as crafty and impactful a scorer as he is a passer.

Haliburton is averaging 27 points per game on a jaw-dropping 67.2% true shooting. He’s one of two guards in the Top 10 in true shooting percentage, just a notch ahead of Steph Curry himself.

Over his last five games, the Indiana Pacers star is producing at an MVP level, even eclipsing his prior outstanding play. He’s averaging 34.6 points and put together a 44-point game against one of the NBA’s best guard defenses, the Miami Heat.

The Boston Celtics are a test of yet another level, which is why this prop hasn’t moved into the 30.5-point range that it might be at against any other team. But the Celtics are also structurally inclined to concede Tyrese’s favorite shot: the above-the-break three.

The Celtics defense schemes to take away the paint and the corner three, but you have to give up something, and the Celtics allow the second-most threes from above the break of any NBA team, per Cleaning the Glass. Haliburton takes 42% of all his attempts from that zone, but he’s also become deadly at leveraging the threat of his outside shot to attack the paint. He’s shooting 64% on shots in floater range, by far a career-best.

While Haliburton is officially questionable due to illness, I fully expect him to suit up. With a trip to Las Vegas on the line, I’m expecting the NBA’s newest superstar to keep burning bright.

Tyrese Haliburton prop: Over 26.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Some players' talent is so undeniable it doesn’t matter what team context they play in, they’ll find a way to shine and succeed. But for the vast majority of NBA players, fit is everything.

Obi Toppin is an object lesson in fit. Toppin was a highly-touted prospect when the New York Knicks selected him eighth overall, but with Julius Randle developing into an All-NBA player, he largely languished on the bench through his first three seasons. Now, he’s playing a starting role for the Pacers, and he’s never looked more comfortable.

Toppin’s greatest strengths are his ability as a sprinter and a finisher. He’s almost purpose-built in a lab to complement Haliburton’s talents, as he catches and dunks every lob and leaks out after every defensive rebound to score in transition before an opposing defense has any chance to set up.

Toppin has also flashed an improved jump shot. He’s up to 36.1% from three on the year compared to his career rate of 32.9%.

Toppin is averaging 17.4 points over his last five games on 65.3% shooting from the field and 50% from downtown. The Pacers are going to emphasize beating the Celtics in transition to avoid getting into a scrap with their best-in-class halfcourt defense, and I believe Toppin will be one of the keys to that plan.

Obi Toppin prop: Over 11.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Myles Turner is one of the most valuable role players in the NBA. He blocks shots at an elite level and is one of the NBA’s better rim protectors. But he’s never been great on the glass, which hurts his overall value as a big man.

But Turner has quietly made real strides as a rebounder. His defensive rebounding has jumped significantly in each of the last four seasons, climbing from 15.4% to 22.2% in that span, per Cleaning the Glass. He’s also having by far the best offensive-rebounding season of his career.

The improvement shows up even more when you look at Turner’s per 36 numbers on Basketball Reference. Turner is averaging 10.4 rebounds per 36 this year, a career-high and 1.2 more than last season.

Boston has also been worse on the glass with Kristaps Porzingis missing time. Porzingis has been confirmed to miss Monday’s game, so Turner will have the size advantage in the starting lineup.

The spacing and size Turner provides will be critical against Boston. While Rick Carlisle has been conservative with his minutes to this point of the season, I expect him to go for broke with a chance to advance to the semifinals on the line. With that increased load, increased production will follow. Turner has also had eight or more rebounds in six straight games.

Myles Turner prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (-113 at Unibet)

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