Celtics vs. Raptors picks and odds: Bet on Toronto’s offence to come through

The Toronto Raptors play their first home game in a week against the Boston Celtics on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence has heated up in recent games and it will benefit from two-way superstar Jayson Tatum’s absence with a wrist injury. Tatum missing this one also greatly increases the chance of a Raptors win and opens up opportunities for other Celtics like Al Horford.

Here are our Celtics vs. Raptors picks for January 21.

Odds as of 9:50 a.m. on 01/21/2023.

Celtics vs. Raptors picks

Best Bet:Raptors over 113.5 points(-121)

Betting Raptors team overs was an extraordinarily efficient way to lose money for much of the season, but the team has turned the corner on offence recently.

Toronto has hit this over in six of its last seven games, averaging 121 points per game during that span.

While the Raptors have struggled on offence for most of the 2022-23 campaign, this line doesn’t ask them to go too far above their season-long norms.

Toronto has averaged 112.5 points this season while the Celtics have conceded 112.4. This over isn’t demanding their recent excellence to do too much heavy lifting.

Tatum missing this one will also help the Raptors immensely. Boston’s best player is a defensive stalwart well-equipped to handle the Raptors’ bevy of big, athletic wings.

Without him, the Celtics could struggle to prevent Toronto’s army of cutters from getting to the rim.

Key stat: The Raptors have hit this over in four straight home games.

Quick picks

Raptors moneyline (-105): Under most circumstances, we’d need incredibly generous odds to consider the Raptors on the moneyline against Boston, but the absence of Tatum changes the calculus.

Boston is 3-5 without Tatum over the last two seasons including a loss in Toronto last season. The Raptors win 56% of their home games, and they should be able to take care of business against a team struggling to adjust to the absence of their franchise player.

Horford over 9.5 points (-112): Several Celtics overs will be intriguing in this one as the 21.7 shots Tatum takes per night will be redistributed.

Horford already averages 9.8 points per night so this line isn’t out of reach and he’s hit this over in three of his last four games, averaging 14.5 points during that stretch.

We like The Godfather — who takes 62.7% of his shots from beyond the arc these days — to stay hot against a defence that allows the fifth-highest, 3-point percentage in the NBA.