Central Michigan-Michigan State prediction, odds, pick, how to watch College Football

It is a battle of Michigan schools as Central Michigan takes on Michigan State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Central Michigan-Michgian State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Last year, Central Michigan had its worst season under Jim McElwain, winning just four games after winning their division two out of the three prior years. There were a lot of close losses though. In their favor is the fact Central Michigan is eighth in returning production on defense. While they lost their top defensive lineman, they brought back Michael Heldman and a quality group of linebackers. Secondly, turnover luck has to change for Central Michigan. They ranked 130th in turnover margin last year, just ahead of Northwestern. They did not produce many turnovers and lost 18 fumbles, the most in the nation. If the ball bounces a different way just a few times, Central Michigan is a bowl team, which is the goal this year.

Meanwhile, Michigan State went 5-7 last year in Mel Tucker's third year at the helm. After winning their first two games and being ranked 11th in the nation, the Spartans dropped their next four games, and would not make a bowl. The offense lost a lot, as Payton Thorne went to Auburn and Keon Coleman headed to Floria State. Now, Michigan State has questions at quarterback, and the offense as a whole has to figure out how to get past last year's struggles. Further, the Spartans had the worst pass defense in all of college football last year. They made wholesale changes that needed to pay off quickly.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Central Michigan-Michigan State Odds

Central Michigan: +14.5 (-120)

Michigan State: -14.5 (-102)

Over: 45.5 (-105)

Under: 45.5 (-115)

How to Watch Central Michigan vs. Michigan State

TV: FS1

Stream: Fox Sports App

Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Central Michigan Will Cover The Spread

Like Michigan State, Central Michigan has questions at quarterback. They will have two guys go in this game to see who is the best option. Jase Bauer got some playing time last year but was not great. He completed just under 60 percent of his passes while throwing for 435 yards. Bauer threw a touchdown and five interceptions in those games. He does have some moxie with his legs though. Last year, he ran for 312 yards and four touchdowns. Redshirt freshman Bert Emmanuel Jr. could also see some time. Coming out of high school he was a two-sport athlete. Not only was he a quality quarterback, throwing 31 touchdowns and no interceptions his senior year, he was a track star. It showed on the field as he ran for over 1000 yards his senior year and 15 scores.

While only playing four games last year, taking the redshirt, Emmanuel is also the team's leading returning rusher. He ran for 496 yards last year and seven scores in his time playing. Marion Lukes will be looking to get more carries this year as well. He ran for 323 yards last year on 51 carries and three scores. He was the second back last season and will be needed in this one to help cover.

Meanwhile, the receiving core does not bring a lot to this team. Jalen McGuaghy is the top returning receiver with 313 yards last year on 20 receptions. Last year, only one guy had more than 500 yards receiving and McGaughy is the only receiver on the team returning with more than 200 yards receiving.

The defense needs to step up in this one. Thomas Incoom is now gone, and so are his 11.5 sacks. They still bring back a lot on the defensive line, but they need to figure out how to get more turnover. Central Michigan only had four interceptions last year, but they bring back two cores and both safety to have an experienced defense looking to make a step forward.

Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread

Michigan State will also send out two quarterbacks in this one. The first could be Noah Kim. The junior from Centreville, VA has seen limited time in his career. He has thrown just 19 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown in his time as quarterback. Kim is a pro-style quarterback with some good deep-ball accuracy. He was a three-star prospect coming out of high school and can step up in the pocket and make solid passes to help lead this offense. The highly touted four-star quarterback out of California will be fighting for the job as well. Katin Houser will be looking to get some time in this game as well. Houser was an Elite 11 quarterback and does have the bigger arm, while Kim provides a more mobile option.

On the ground, the Spartans bring back a lot and some new transfers. Jalen Berger returns after rushing for 636 yards and six touchdowns last year. Nathan Cartner comes in from UConn. He ran for just under 1,000 yards in his time at UConn and is a physical back. Jaren Mangham ran for 671 yards in 2021 for USF with 15 touchdowns. Dealing with injuries last year, he was limited to just 104 yards and three scores last year. There is also the speedy freshman Jaelon Barbain who could provide a spark to this running game.

The defense does bring back a lot, but it is mainly for running-downs. Cal Haladay was a great run-stopper with 120 tackles last year. They bring in some big body transfers from through the country, but they have to figure out how to defend the pass. Jacoby Windmon is back, and he had 5.5 sacks last year with six forced fumbles. With him and Aaron Brule rushing the passer, they could force one of the Central Michigan quarterbacks into a mistake and take this win with a few turnovers.

Final Central Michigan-Michigan State Prediction & Pick

Michigan State will be looking to improve on defense this year, and it will shoot in this game. The Central Michigan passing game has too many turnovers and not enough big plays to make this a competitive game. Further, Michigan State will display a lot of their offense in this one while trying to figure out the quarterback situation. Expect them to put up plenty of points while Central Michigan struggles to score.

Final Central Michigan-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -14.5 (-102)