Cesarewitch Preview: Big priced runner can spring a surprise

horseracing.net

13 October 2023

Cesarewitch Preview: Big priced runner can spring a surprise

Always one of the most hotly contested handicaps of the year, and a beacon the flat season is almost at an end, the Cesarewitch of 2023 is upon us come Saturday afternoon at Newmarket. Bookmakers are generously offering an array of extra places to punters playing in this puzzle of a contest, and Billy Grimshaw is very sweet on his pick thanks to a number of trends in their favour. With each way bettors licking their lips at the prospect of a return even if their pick finishes seventh or eighth, allow our man to make his case for an Irish raider...

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There are absolutely loads in this brilliantly competitive race that punters can make a case for. One thing to keep an eye out for whoever you fancy is the draw, with those from 20 and above having a poor record in recent times in the hustle and bustle of this huge field staying handicap. Over the last decade eight of the ten winners of the race have come from predominantly National Hunt yards, with the gruelling nature of the race and the high chance of soft ground at this time of year lending itself well to those hardy jumpers with nice looking flat handicap marks.

With that being said it is no surprise to see Pied Piper, with Ryan Moore booked for the ride, holding favouritism at the time of writing for Gordon Elliott. A high class juvenile hurdler who was third in the 2022 triumph before being agonisingly beaten in the 2023 Coral Cup just a short head, he comes to Newmarket on the back of a pipe opener at Killarney in late August before being minded for this race. He has some decent flat form as well as his obvious smarts over jumps, including a sixth to Coltrane at Royal Ascot in 2022 and carrying just nine stone three he is probably the right favourite, especially with Moore in the plate. At the prices though and with seven or eight places on offer from the bookies, I can give him a swerve.

The Shunter for Emmet Mullins has had plenty of days in the sun and is another coming here with the right profile in nearly all aspects. A proven stayer, well weighted and from a National Hunt yard, the main con against all those pros is his age and the worry he is not quite the force of old. Goshen falls firmly in the category of 'not what he once was' for Gary Moore as well, although on his day he would have to have a shot in here.

Willie Mullins has a clutch of runners that look overpriced and one I was tempted by was Jackfinbar at 33/1 or bigger seven places. He managed eighth in the Irish Cesarewitch in a race where nothing came from off the pace and that was a stronger heat than this. His effort can be marked up and he'll like the rain falling but even with Rachael Blackmore a fascinating jockey booking, his flop in the Ebor puts me off somewhat.

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Not So Sleepy is a horse I'm incredibly fond of and it was great to see the old boy back to winning ways last time out. He has always been a quirky sort and the chances of him putting a couple of good runs together consecutively seem to be decreasing with age, and he will probably struggle with the burden of a four pound penalty for his win last time out. Tashkhan is another veteran that got back on the winning trail last time out but is penalised to the tune of four pounds in here as well.

The horse I was most intrigued by, but just couldn't quite justify putting up as a bet, was the lightly tried Temporize for Syd Hosie. His Glorious Goodwood win on soft was a brilliant effort and the softer the ground gets at HQ the better judging by that effort. His seven pound rise in the weights for winning that race looks more than fair and this horse, who won for the Johnstons before switching stables, could still have bundles of improvement left in him as a staying prospect. The trouble is, this is an enormous step up in class and one or two more hardened challengers may see him off

Zenon and Mr Escobar are both big prices for Willie Mullins and could sneak into contention if the ground becomes a real slog, but the latter named was well beaten last time out by the horse I'm going to side with and that is JESSE EVANS. Noel Meade of course fits the criteria of a National Hunt trainer foraging for big flat prizes and his raider has been admirably consistent this year, in races hotter than this. His worst finish this season, on paper at least, is the fourth place he bagged last time out in the Irish equivalent of this race. Looking through the field that day it was a darn sight stronger than the list lumbering up here and a repeat performance would, in my view, go a long way towards winning this big Newmarket handicap. His second in the Galway hurdle earlier in the summer shows his talent and with the ground not an issue, I struggle to see him out of the extended places while thinking he has a knocking chance of victory.

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