CFL Week 19 Wagering Preview: Elks Can't Win At Home

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12 October 2022

CFL Week 19 Wagering Preview: Elks Can't Win At Home

There are just three weeks remaining in the CFL regular season, and major playoff implications abound in the Week 19 matchups.

Four of the six playoff teams have been decided, but only the league-best Winnipeg Blue Bombers have solidified themselves as a division champion to this point.

The Montreal Alouettes are on the verge of clinching a playoff berth this week, while three teams — Ottawa Redblacks, Hamilton Tiger-Cats, and Saskatchewan Roughriders — are battling for the final playoff spot.

That final spot is currently held down via crossover by the reeling Riders, who have lost five straight games and six of their last seven. Saskatchewan, which is 6-10 on the season, is on a bye week and will close out the regular season with a back-to-back set against the Calgary Stampeders.

Here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds, followed by our Week 19 betting preview:

Winnipeg Blue Bombers +100 (opened +300)
Toronto Argonauts +425(opened +600)
Calgary Stampeders +425 (opened +700)
BC Lions +525 (opened +1300)
Montreal Alouettes +1000 (opened +800)
Saskatchewan Roughriders +2500 (opened +450)
Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3300 (opened +500)

*All odds in this article are from PointsBet.

Montreal Alouettes @ Ottawa Redblacks (+3.5, 47.5 over/under)

Week 7 — Montreal 40, Ottawa 33 (Alouettes covered as 2.5-point favorites)
Week 13 — Ottawa 38, Montreal 24 (Redblacks covered as 4-point underdogs)
Week 18 — Ottawa 24, Montreal 18 (Redblacks covered as 6.5-point underdogs)

About the Alouettes (7-8 straight up, 9-6 against the spread, 8-7 o/u): Montreal blew a glorious opportunity to clinch a playoff berth last week against the Redblacks, but it’ll get another opportunity to get the job done Friday night in Ottawa.

The Alouettes trail the first-place Argonauts in the East Division by four points with three games to play, but they also have a four-point lead over the Tiger-Cats for second in the division. If Montreal can hold its second seed in the division, it will earn the right to host a home playoff game in the opening round. Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for Montreal, with so much on the line and with the embarrassing loss to the last-place Redblacks last week.

Montreal’s offense produced only a single touchdown last week despite stud running back William Stanback returning to the field. The 2021 CFL rushing yards leader’s usage was extremely limited in his return from a 13-game absence from a broken ankle, as he was handed the ball only eight times for 20 yards. There’s no doubt his usage, and production, will increase as he continues to recover from the injury and gets his stride again.

About the Redblacks (4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS, 6-9 o/u): The Redblacks rallied behind their new interim head coach Bob Dyce to come away with an unlikely 24-18 win over Montreal last week.

Dyce replaced the fired Paul LaPolice, and the victory ended Ottawa’s three-game losing streak, although the team still remains in last place in the East Division.

Technically, the Redblacks are still alive in the playoff race, but they’d need to win out and Hamilton and Saskatchewan would both have to lose all of their remaining games.

After a 1-8 start, the team is a respectable 3-3 since promoting Nick Arbuckle as its starting quarterback.

The under is 4-0 in Montreal’s last four games.
The Alouettes are 7-0 ATS in the past seven meetings in Ottawa.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Calgary Stampeders (-7, 48.5 o/u)

Week 2 — Calgary 33, Hamilton 30 (Calgary covered in overtime as a 1-point underdog)

About the Tiger-Cats (5-10 SU, 5-10 ATS, 8-7 o/u): After a huge 18-14 win over Saskatchewan last week, the Tiger-Cats are sitting just one game behind the Riders with a game in hand for the final playoff spot.

This struggling team has won two of its last three games since Wes Hills has revitalized the running game. Over Hamilton’s last three games, Hills has rushed for 251 yards on 45 carries with a touchdown to balance out the usually pass-heavy offense, and the results are speaking for themselves.

Hamilton ranks eighth out of nine teams in rushing this season with an average of only 87.1 yards per game.

About the Stampeders (10-5 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 9-6 o/u): The Lions and Stampeders, who have identical 10-5 records, will be playing each other in the Western semi-final, but home-field advantage in the contest is still up for grabs.

Coming off their final bye week, the Stampeders should be rested and ready for the stretch run. The team is 4-2 since Jake Maier took over at quarterback, and those two losses have come by a combined four points.

This matchup with Hamilton will be decided on the ground. The Tiger-Cats have the best defense against the run (allowing 77.5 yards per game), while the Stampeders boast the best rushing attack (115.4 yards per game).

Ka’Deem Carey is leading the league in rushing yards and is among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns with nine.

Sports betting trends:

The Tiger-Cats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
The Stampeders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against opponents with a losing record.
The over is 5-2 in Calgary’s last seven home games.

Toronto Argonauts @ Edmonton Elks (+5.5, 50.5 o/u)

About the Argonauts (9-6 SU, 9-5-1 ATS, 7-8 o/u): An Alouettes loss Friday in Ottawa combined with an Argonauts victory in Edmonton Saturday would seal the East Division for Toronto.

This is the first, and only, meeting between the Elks and Argonauts this season, but they’re two teams heading in different directions. Toronto has won five of its last six games (5-1 ATS) heading into this matchup with the last-place Elks, and the team appears to be hitting its stride just in time for the playoffs.

Quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson is leading the league in passing yards (4,218) and ranks third in passing touchdowns (20).

About the Elks (4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-6 o/u): Is this the week the Elks finally win a game at Commonwealth Stadium and put an end to their historic home losing streak?

In Week 17, Edmonton set the record for the longest home losing streak in pro football history at 15 losses when it fell 25-18 to Montreal. The team is out of playoff contention and has only two more chances (this week against Toronto and Oct. 21 vs. BC) to put an end to the home misery, or it will carry over to next season.

This team is in absolute shambles after falling 48-11 to the Blue Bombers last week. It was the fifth time in 16 games this season the Elks surrendered at least 45 points to the opposition.

Sports betting trends:

The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Toronto is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against opponents with a losing record.
The Elks are 16-35 ATS in their past 51 home games.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ BC Lions (+2, 50 o/u)

Week 5 — Winnipeg 43, BC 22 (Blue Bombers covered as 2-point underdogs)

About the Blue Bombers (14-2 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 o/u): The Bombers have already secured the top seed in the West Division and have nothing else to play for until the playoffs.

Head coach Mike O’Shea will now focus on keeping everyone fresh and healthy down the stretch, so that means starters could be rotated in and out for the team’s final two contests, which are both against BC. If O’Shea elects to rest starting quarterback Zach Collaros, the point spread could move dramatically toward the Lions.

About the Lions (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 7-7-1 o/u): As previously mentioned, the Lions are in a fight with the Stampeders for home advantage in the playoffs, so motivation will be high for this matchup.

BC is 2-4 since quarterback Nathan Rourke sustained a foot injury in late August, but Vernon Adams Jr., who hasn’t thrown an interception since being acquired by the team when Rourke went down, is starting to look much more comfortable in the offense. Adams has thrown for 563 yards and four touchdowns over the last two contests.

The big news out of BC this week, though, is that Rourke returned to practice in a very limited fashion. The team is still hopeful that he can recover in time for the playoffs. The Lions were 8-1 with Rourke under center before he sustained the injury.