Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds, prediction, pick: Bet on the Blues as a big underdog in Champions League Wednesday
It’s been a choppy, bizarre season for Chelsea Football Club.
Not only are the Blues floundering in 11th-place in the English Premier League in a season where they were expected to put some pressure on in the title race, but they are also playing for their third manager of the campaign and have lashed out over a half-billion dollars on transfers since the summer. It’s been calamitous, and yet, Chelsea still has a chance to make things right. All the Blues need to do is win the Champions League.
It may sound far-fetched — and it is unlikely — but Chelsea, despite its inconsistent season domestically, is one of two English Premier League teams in the quarterfinals in Europe’s grandest competition.
Chelsea +400 (BetMGM
As you’d expect with all of the turmoil and inconsistency on the field, Chelsea is a significant underdog against Real Madrid, the defending champions, in the Champions League quarterfinals.
Unlike Chelsea, Real Madrid feels like its on stable footing at the moment. Los Blancos won’t win La Liga this season, but they’re the current trophy-holders in the Champions League — a competition they’ve won four times in the last seven campaigns — and have finished atop the Spanish top flight in two of the previous three years.
With Madrid in fine form and owning the pedigree of being one of the best tournament teams during this generation, it’ll be hard to find much betting support for Chelsea, which comes into this contest off a 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton in the Premier League. It was the third game in a row that the Blues failed to score.
That said, Chelsea’s underlying metrics suggest that they’re a much better team than their actual results. Chelsea is just 4-6-6 (W-D-L) with a -2 goal difference (12 GF, 14 GA) in the Premier League since the World Cup, but their expected goals differential is +9.7. Bad luck and poor finishing have held this team back more than pedestrian play. According to UnderStat, Chelsea should have 28 points from their 16 matches since returning from the break. In reality, they have 18. Some positive regression should be coming for this team, which has way too much talent to fade this drastically.
It takes some bravery to back a wobbly team like Chelsea against a titan like Real Madrid, but this will likely be the low-point of the betting market for the Blues, which means it’s the perfect time to get in.
Real Madrid -140
Chelsea +400
Draw +275
The Bet: Chelsea +400
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