Cheltenham 2023: Triumph Hurdle Ante Post Betting Tips, Prediction, Odds

Cheltenham Gold Cup, RacingGav returns with his fifth preview for next month's Cheltenham Festival.

This week sees our main man finding big value in the the Triumph Hurdle which currently sees Willie Mullins headikng the betting wth three potential entries.

Triumph Hurdle Ante Post Prediction

Scriptwriter – 16/1 

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My fifth selection of this Cheltenham Festival Antepost series is Scriptwriter in the Triumph Hurdle, who is currently available at a lovely price of 16/1. 

Yes, I know, the Triumph Hurdle… that has Willie’s trio of Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau at the head of the market… However, I just cannot ignore Scriptwriter at a juicy price of 16/1 and I’m willing to take on the Mullins battalion at that price. 

Scriptwriter started out on the flat for Aiden O’Brien where he had four runs and an official flat rating of 102 before moving to Milton Harris. 

Milton wasted no time sending him over hurdles and he won a Maiden Hurdle at the first time of asking at Sedgefield. Milton then threw him straight into the Grade 2 Triumph Trial at Cheltenham’s November meeting. I tipped up Scriptwriter that day and he won well for us at 4/1. He beat the now 125 rated Perseus Way that day and did so convincingly despite hitting the front too soon and hanging badly to his right. Course form at Cheltenham can be massive and that was invaluable experience in the bag, as was his second to Comfort Zone on Trials Day which I’ll come onto. 

He was then due to run at Chepstow but the ground went very soft on Welsh Grand National day and they decided to pull him out. As a fall-back plan, Milton sent him for a spin at Wolverhampton on the Tapeta off his flat mark of 102 and he battled well to win, seeing his flat mark rise to 104. He showed that day, by winning over 1m4f, that he certainly doesn’t lack speed. The horse he beat into second, Base Note, also won next time out, franking the form. 

At the end of last month, Scriptwriter returned to Cheltenham for Festival Trials Day, where he was again in another Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle trial. He faced the winner (Comfort Zone) and second (Dixon Cover) from the Chepstow engagement that he missed due to the ground. There was also the very quirky Jupiter Du Gite in opposition as well.

Scriptwriter was beaten by Comfort Zone but I took plenty of positives out of the race. Firstly, it was ran on Soft ground which is not ideal for Scriptwriter as shown by the fact he was pulled out at Chepstow. So, between that and the fact that Paddy was taking a wider course in an attempt to find better ground, I think the run can be marked up.

Milton Harris has also said that this horse needs to be delivered late. He used to be a pacemaker for Aiden O’Brien so he is used to going off in front, being headed and giving in. However, Paddy Brennan got to the front way to soon and the pair subsequently got beaten. Paddy’s body language coming up to the line (quite literally hung his head) showed that he knew he knew he got it wrong on the day. He was also reported to have been spitting feathers after the race… There certainly no doubt in Milton or Paddy’s minds that Scriptwriter was the better horse of the two.  

Whilst people will always debate it both ways, I agree with Milton and Paddy, I think with a more patient ride, Scriptwriter wins that race. Likewise, if it was run on Good ground, he wins that race. Considering that plenty went wrong for him on the day, Comfort Zone could only beat him less than a length. With ground conditions more to his liking and with a more patient ride, I think he can reverse that form when they meet again in the Triumph.  

Speaking of the Triumph and coming back to the aforementioned Willie Mullin’s trio, there are four ahead of Scriptwriter in the market. Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau for Willie and then Comfort Zone from last time out.

As I have said already, I think Scriptwriter can reverse the form with Comfort Zone. So that leaves us with the Willie Mullin’s trio to beat. It’s hard to knock the form of the three of these as they have all shown nice form to date.

If you had to knock the form, you would say Gala Marceau only won last time as Lossiemouth was hampered badly. As a result of Lossiemouth being badly hampered, Paul threw the kitchen sink at her and Willie is worried that may have left a mark and he’d of rather that he was hands and heels to the line. Mares also have a dreadful record in the race, which would be another concern.

Blood Destiny then won a mickey mouse race last time out where most of those in behind wanted to finish well beaten to get handicap marks. So, it is always hard to quantify that form, albeit the timings looked smart. As you can see, none of these horses are bulletproof going into Cheltenham, they all have potential flaws.  

After the Dublin Racing Festival mishap, the general vibe from connections was that next time, Paul may just take the race into his own hands on Lossiemouth and make the running in the Triumph.

If he does this, it could be the perfect set up for Scriptwriter. Paddy will be wanting the others to go off in front and him to ride Scriptwriter cold out the back of the field. As the races progresses, he can then move closer and finally he can pounce late to take victory with that flat speed that Scriptwriter possesses.

The hurdles track on the new course is quite a unique one as there are only two hurdles in the last six furlongs. As a result, there is less of an emphasis on jumping and there is also more of an emphasis on stamina.

You regularly see hold up horses come out on top as the front horses can get racing too far from home and then struggle to get up the famous Cheltenham hill.

I could see very similar happening here with Lossiemouth trying to make all. Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau trying to taker her on to beat here and them all doing too much too soon and Paddy coming past them all with a late challenge. 

Whilst I have to try to pick holes in the opposition, the reality is that they are all very good horses with very promising futures. I just have to try and identify the value bet in the race and with the three of Willie Mullins being best priced at 7/4, 3/1 and 5/1, I think Scriptwriter is overpriced and subsequently the value bet in the race at 16/1.

Whilst he may well bump into one too strong, I’d be very surprised if one or two of the market principals don’t do too much too soon and he can run into the places at the least. At 16/1, a place is a nice profit on an each way bet. If they all go hard and Paddy gets the ride right, I wouldn’t be surprised if he came past them all close home.  

All things considered my Triumph Hurdle selection is Scriptwriter at 16/1.