Cheltenham Stayers’ Hurdle ante-post tips: Blazing Khal holds each-way value in wide-open contest

Thursday March 14 15.30 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (3 miles)

This long distance hurdle race continually provides a fantastic finish, and we often see the same horses run for multiple years. Increasingly the quality of runners is improving, but you need a true stayer with a high cruising speed to win the race.

I have used the trends below to reduce the field to a more manageable number for further analysis:

Age

• 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8 

Price

•   3/12 were favourites
•   5/12 were in the top 3 in the betting 

Last Run

•   6/12 had won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle
• 10/12 had their last run within 80 days
• 5/12 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out (3/5 won, 1 placed) 

• 11/12 had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
•   7/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham 

•   9/12 had at least 3 runs over 23-25 furlongs
•   8/12 had at least 2 wins over 23-25 furlongs 

• 11/12 had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles
• 10/12 had at least 4 previous wins over hurdles 

Rating

•   9/12 were rated 156 or higher 

Grade 1 Wins

•   9/12 had at least 1 previous grade 1 win 
•   9/12 had at least 1 previous grade 2 win 

Season Form

• 11/12 had at least 2 runs that season
•   8/12 had at least 1 win that season.

Blazing Khal disappointed in this race last season, finishing sixth behind Sire Du Berlais, but he is at his best first time out and importantly has a course and distance win to his name. 

Blazing Khal is lightly raced and obviously has had issues, which limit his number of runs, but his good record when fresh is why we are prepared to ignore the recent run trend.

Botox Has lacks a Grade 1 win but has won at Grade 2 level this season so might just be improving. He has also won at Cheltenham and over three miles, but might be just below this level, especially as this looks to be a particularly competitive field.

Impaire Et Passe is also entered in the Champion Hurdle and is yet to win over the trip. He has won twice at Grade 1 level and won the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival last season. 

He has the class to win this, but the question about stamina remains. If he is close up coming to the last hurdle, I do think he can win this, but I think the Champion Hurdle would appear to be a better option.

Theleme is French-trained and yet to win outside of France, with all seventeen of his hurdle runs (ten wins) having been at Auteuil. 

Theleme is a multiple Grade 1 winner and has no stamina issues and if the ground was heavy, I expect he will start as favourite. There is, of course, also a chance that he will not make his first visit to Cheltenham.

This is a hugely difficult race to pick a winner and several of the well-fancied horses at the head of the market were ruled out by one or more of the trends, including Teauphoo, Crambo and Irish Point, even though they clearly have the credentials to put themselves in the mix 

Using the trends, I am suggesting Blazing Khal as an each-way bet and , as always, make sure you use a bookmaker offering non-runner money back (NRMB).