Cheltenham Tuesday Tips: See Raceolly's Best Bets For Day 1 of the festival

horseracing.net

13 March 2023

Cheltenham Tuesday Tips: See Raceolly's Best Bets For Day 1 of the festival

Cheltenham Festival Day 1
Cheltenham Festival Day 2
Cheltenham Festival Day 3
Cheltenham Festival Day 4
Cheltenham Specials

Our resident tipster Raceolly is back with his top Cheltenham tips for the 2023 festival, and our main man has some eye-catching bets for day one of the meeting, which takes place on Tuesday afternoon. Check out all his best bets for what should be a cracking opening day at Prestbury Park...

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This is an incredibly open Supreme and a great opener for the 2023 festival. I’ve changed my mind on this a few times and was all set to play Rare Edition for the Charlie Longsdon yard for most of the week, but while I think he’s a good each way option I keep coming back to TAHMURAS at the prices with the win in mind.

He comes from the Tolworth into this like two of the previous recent winners and when it comes to finishing in the first five it’s the 3rd most successful route over the last 25 years. The rain around at the moment is a huge positive for him having won the Tolworth on soft ground at Sandown and as a point winner he fits the trends of a horse that will stay further and keep on up the hill.

He’s improving with every run and has shown signs of greenness every outing to date, but still wins and the form has had plenty of boosts despite that. He's guaranteed a fast pace here, which will help him settle, and clearly has bundles of ability to explore. Paul Nicholls has won this twice and had one placed from his 18 runners over the last 25 years.

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I’ve already put my thoughts and opinions out about my ante-post play on Iceo Madrik and he’s still 50/1 in places, but with eight places available in the each-way markets I’d like to put another one in at a huge price who also wouldn’t mind the rain and likely soft ground for day one and that’s TOP VILLE BEN.

He might be 11 now but as Vintage Clouds showed in 2021 an older horse with plenty of experience can be an asset in a race like this and in fact there’s been six double-figured age winners in the last 25 years. He has a lovely racing weight off 140 and has won off 14lbs higher a few years back and placed off 10lbs higher on Boxing Day 2021, just three chase runs ago. Phil Kirby's charge ran a huge race at the Dublin Racing Festival last month to finish 3rd behind the well fancied The Goffer and is 4lb better off at the weights for a three-length defeat here. Interestingly horses that had previously run in a Grand National have a 28% place rate in this with 11 at least placed from 40 runners.

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15:30 Cheltenham - Champion Hurdle

This is all about Constitution Hill and with just six others turning up to take him on a bet on this race becomes very tricky. I don’t want to take Constitution Hill on from a win point of view, but the race could be run to suit I LIKE TO MOVE IT for a place perspective. The Kingwell hurdle is a tried and tested Champion Hurdle route and has seen three winners and five places come from that race over the last 25 years, the 3rd most successful race with the Irish Champion Hurdle being the most.

He’s a three times course winner already who will likely be prominently ridden in this likely tactical affair but unlike the fancied State Man and Vauban I think he’ll be ridden to grab a place. State Man and Vauban will likely try and take Constitution Hill on and could get racing a long way from home on these speedballs that could see them fall in a heap on that long run up the hill leaving one ridden for a place to pick up the pieces. It’s happened so many times over the years at the festival and I Like To Move it has the strongest form from the others looking to get that valuable place money.

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I’ve already played two in this with Afadil and Metamorpheus both confirmed to carry our ante-post money. My full reasons and analysis on them are on my handicap ante-post article, but with six places on offer there’s one at a huge price that could run in to those places and that’s MR FREEDOM.

While he doesn’t have the profile of a winner for this he’s definitely been overlooked from a form point of view due to that. He comes here off the same mark as when a very close 3rd at Doncaster, where he really should have won with a better ride. He drifted slightly left under pressure in the finish that day and gets the help of headgear for this which could eek out further improvement. Sheena West's charge finished 5th in the Triumph Hurdle trial here in November in only previous course run when well fancied and big field and fast pace will suit him very well if he can get the luck with the breaks. He’s not as solid as Afadil and Metamorpheus but at the price I couldn’t resist a little play.

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COOLVALLA has spent this season running over marathon trips at undulating tracks and rarely being put under pressure to win all four starts. Horses coming from Fontwell as a prep for this have a 21% place rate with three places from 14 runners and Chris Gordon is having a fantastic season boasting a massive 24% win rate from his 186 runners. Jockey Joshua Newman won this race on Midnight Prayer in 2014 and is a good booking on his first ride for the yard. Any of the likely soft in the ground will be a big positive and still improving with every run, a huge price considering the amount of stats he ticks when it comes to previous winners.

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1stFly The Nest

2ndLos Camachos

3rdRebel Redemption